Trump says countries ‘like UK’ should go to strait of Hormuz and ‘just take fuel’ – UK politics live
Minister confirms support package may be offered as experts predict energy price cap to rise by £288 in July
From tomorrow the Ofgem price cap goes down from £1,758 to £1,641. The government is highlighting this as one of its cost of living support measures, because the cap is coming down as a result of decisions taken in the budget.
Here is a chart from Ofgem explaining how they calculated the new figure, which will apply for three months (from 1 April to 30 June).
It is important to stress what the price cap actually is. It is not a cap on the amount people will pay for their energy. Many people (around 50%, to be more precise) will pay more, because the cap applies to what can be charged for units of energy, not the overall bill. The Ofgem headline figure is the amount an average household would pay assuming typical household useage.
And it only lasts for three months. There will be a new figure for July to September and this morning Cornwall Insight, an energy consultancy whose price cap forecasts are widely respected in the industry, is predicting that for Q3 the cap will rise to £1,929. That is an increase of £288, or 18%, on April’s cap.
Craig Lowrey, principal consultant at Cornwall Insight, said:
A rise in July is pretty much unavoidable, but how high prices go remains to be seen.
There is some relief in the timing, summer is when energy demand is at its lowest, which should soften the impact on household energy expenditure.
If higher wholesale prices continue, it will be the effects on the October cap that have the most impact, and that is when the question of government support for households is likely to be revisited.
In response, Martin McCluskey, an energy minister, confirmed that the government was willing to intervene to help some consumers with energy costs if necessary. He said.
Tackling the affordability crisis is our number one priority and I know many families will be thinking about how events in the Middle East might impact the cost of living at home.
We will continue to fight people’s corner through this crisis and, as the energy secretary has said, if it’s necessary to intervene, we will.
Key events
Zack Polanski says Greens could be ‘kingmakers’ in Senedd after election because they are likely to hold balance of power
Zack Polanski, the Green party leader, has said that his party could be the “kingmakers” in the Senedd after the election because they are likely to hold the balance of power.
Speaking at the launch of his party’s campaign in Wales, Polanski said:
The Greens could be the kingmakers at this election.
What does that mean? That means we know there will be a new government in Cardiff Bay.
What the colour of that government looks like, and the mix is ultimately up to the voters, but we’re being very clear – every single Green that is elected to the Senedd will be a Green in those negotiations.
A YouGov MRP poll released last week suggests that Plaid Cymru will be the biggest party in the Senedd after the election (with 43 seats), but that to have a majority (49 seats) it will need the support of either Labour (on 12 seats, the poll predicts) or the Greens (10 seats).
These figures seem to imply that a Plaid/Labour deal of some sort would be just as appealing to Plaid as a Plaid/Green deal.
But Plaid are closer to the Greens on policy than they are to Labour. Even though Plaid has in the past been in coalition with Labour, and supported Labour in a cooperation deal, there is some acrimony in the relationship. And Plaid are promising “change” after 27-years of Labour-led government since devolution, and governing with Labour would make them look more like a continuity administration.
Anthony Slaughter, leader of the Greens in Wales, said Green MSs would be deciding the direction of the next Welsh government and said the party was “already shifting” Plaid Cymru’s position on some policy matters.
Trump tells UK ‘you’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself’ in taunt over fuel oil shortages
Donald Trump has resumed his taunting of the UK, and Keir Starmer, over Britain’s Iran policy. The president (who regularly says things which are untrue) has just posted this on this Truth Social platform saying the British will “have to start learning how to fight for yourself” because the US won’t be there to help in future.
Streeting claims deal with BMA to avert resident doctors’ strike still possible
Wes Streeting, the health secretary, has insisted that a deal with the BMA to avert the resident doctors’s strike in England is still possible. In a post on social media responding to the BMA’s reaction to the PM’s article about the strike (see 9.36am), Streeting said:
The BMA seems surprised that if they reject the deal on offer and go on strike their members don’t get what the Government is offering.
We have time before Easter weekend to resolve this dispute.
A deal on jobs and pay is on the table.
Trump ‘not dictating policy to me’, says Farage
At the end of his press conference Nigel Farage was asked if he was worried that his association with Donald Trump would hurt him electorally.
Farage said that he could not pretend not to know Trump. He said he admired some of the things Trump had done, on the border and on energy policy in particular. There were other things Trump had done that he did not agree with, he said, without specifying what. He went on:
He is not dictating policy to me. I’m dictating policy to me.
Farage said he also thought close links between the UK and the US were “absolutely vital”.
Farage says he’s opposed to youth mobility deal with EU, claiming it’s ‘just attempt to completely undo Brexit’
Q: [From the Guardian] Would you keep the youth mobility scheme that the government is negotiating with the EU, or would you repeal it?
Farage says he does not support the proposals because “this will always be one way traffic”. He says there will be three or four times as many Europeans coming to Britain as Britons going to Europe.
There are more exciting parts of the world for young British people to visit, he says. “Europe isn’t actually very sexy any more,” he says.
He says the Spanish made a “catastrophic error” by granting an amnesty to migrants in the country illegally. He goes on:
We are living in an age of increased global insecurity where national borders and protecting national interests matters more and more. And I think the youth mobility scheme falls at that first hurdle, if at nothing else.
And it’s just an attempt by the government to completely undo Brexit.
And Jenrick says, instead of letting young European people come to the UK to work, the government should be prioritising finding jobs for British people.
Q: Are you worried that Reform UK’s support is mainly coming from older people, not younger people?
Farage does not accept this. He claims the polling shows that his party’s support among young people is almost as high as it is amongst voters as a whole.
And by the way, if [Labour] do lower the vote to 16, the Greens will do very well. We will do well and Labour will do terribly.
Farage rejects claim election candidate controversies mean Reform UK’s vetting procedures flawed
Q: Do you think Reform UK’s candidate vetting processes have been inadequate, given that a candidate in Wales has had to stand down after a picture emerged of him giving a Nazi salute?
Farage defends the party’s vetting process.
We vet people. We ask them to tell us the truth. We asked them for their social media handles. We do all those things.
Sometimes people lie to you and they might be using social media handles that you have no way of finding.
He says a Plaid Cymru candidate has already stood down, and he predicts the party will have more problems with candidates.
This is a problem for all parties. He goes on:
I think we’re dealing with it as effectively, if not more effectively, than the others.
(The questioner did not ask about Scotland, where five Reform candidates have already stood down or been suspended.)
Farage says he thinks Keir Starmer has been right to adopt a tough position with the BMA over the proposed resident doctors’ strike. He says:
Unusually Keir Starmer has taken a strong position. There’s a first time for everything I suppose.
Farage says he does not think anyone fully knows what Trump’s Iran war aims are
Q: What do you make of the suggestion that Donald Trump could end the Iran war without securing the strait of Hormuz? Or do you think he should finish the job?
Farage replies:
I don’t think we should take literally anything right now that Donald Trump says … And then the last thing he’s going to do, or the last thing his colleagues in the White House are going to do, is to give the Iranians any idea of what their true intentions are.
Farage says he does not think anyone knows what Trump’s aims were when he embarked on the war.
Was it to remove nuclear capability? Was it aimed at regime change? I don’t think any of us quite know the absolute truth about that.
But he says he does not think Repubicans in the US would accept it if Trump were to end the war allowing Iran to continue restricting access to the strait of Hormuz. He says it is only open selectively now, “mostly for Pakistani vessels taking oil to China”.
Farage and Jenrick are now taking questions.
Q: Do you have confidence in the grooming gangs inquiry?
Farage says he doesn’t. He explains:
The problem is any third party inquiry is a waste of space unless you can subpoena police officers, social services, civil servants who were all part of turning the collective blind eye. And I think everything this government has done on this issue is an attempt to literally kick the can down the road, to not fully open this up.
Reform UK says it would abolish air passenger duty on short-haul flights
Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, and Robert Jenrick, his Treasury spokesperson, are holding a press conference at Heathrow.
They have just said that Reform UK would get rid of air passenger duty (APD), a tax on flights, on short-haul flights.
Jenrick said this would save families £45 on average per flight, or £48 on a flight in the UK. He said:
This is a time of year where millions of Brits will be going on holiday, catching some sun in Mallorca or Tenerife, and millions more will be sat at home over the Easter holidays thinking about booking a family holiday. And this year, of all years, that will be a tough decision because household finances are just so tight, and so we want to make it cheaper.
In our first budget, we will get rid of the family holiday tax. Air passenger duty will be gone for short-haul family trips, that will save a family on average £45 on their flights whether that’s abroad, or £48 if they’re going on holiday here in the UK.
That means that if you are catching a flight, for example, as a family to Málaga, you would save 23% on the cost of your flights. We appreciate that’s not a huge amount of money, but it’s an important saving that will make (it) just a bit easier, to have that family trip, to have a bit of fun, to get away and spend time with your loved ones.
He did not give details of the costings, or how this would be funded.
Asked if this would be fair, given that that wealthy people are far more likely to fly than poorer people, Jenrick did not engage with the point, but he said that people regarded APD as a sin tax, and that people should not feel ashamed for wanting to go on holiday.
He also contrasted Reform UK’s proposal with Rachel Reeves’s decision to raise APD in the budget, with the increase coming into force in April.
The SNP could win 62 seats in May’s Scottish Parliament election, with Reform UK narrowly in second place over Labour, a new poll has suggested. The Press Association says:
The survey of 1,068 people carried out by Survation for the Diffley Partnership between March 16 and 23 put the SNP ahead with 35% of the Holyrood constituency vote and 32% of the regional list, leaving the party just three seats short of the majority.
Reform UK would receive 19% of the constituency vote and 18% of the list, projecting a 19-seat return.
Labour followed closely behind in the survey, with 19% of respondents backing the party in constituencies and 17% in regional votes, equalling 18 Holyrood seats.
The survey put the Tories on 13 seats, with 11% of the constituency vote and 13% of the list vote, with the Scottish Greens on 10 seats and the Lib Dems on seven.
Back to energy, and today the Common Wealth thinktank has published a report saying consumers would benefit from replacing the current energy supply model with a system of regional energy boards. The thinktank, which focuses on the case for public ownership, argues that energy privatisation, and encouraging people to choose between competing suppliers, has not worked.
The report says:
Having a “contestable” retail energy market means that people choose which company supplies them with electricity and gas. We can each switch our energy supplier within five days. In this report, we show that this market is not doing what it is supposed to do – the assumptions about how people would behave in the market were wrong and that structural change is needed. A move to a non-contestable model, where all homes and small businesses in each region have the same supplier, would deliver five benefits: a fairer and more flexible system that can support long-term energy efficiency upgrades to the fabric of our homes. The transition to regional energy boards can be done fast, because retail energy supply companies are asset light and currently have low market value. The transition to Regional Energy Board can be done first, before deeper public interventions in other parts of the system.
The report is here, and there is a summary here.
Mathew Lawrence, the Common Wealth director, said:
Bold energy system reform is more urgent than ever. That means grasping the nettle of a consumer market that is letting households down. A regional energy board model is a tried and tested way to reduce bills and encourage clean energy tech adoption – while supporting consumer flex and innovation. Now is the time to go big on behalf of the British billpayer.
Home Office tells police to stop recording non-crime hate incidents
The Home Office has confirmed that the police are being told to stop recording non-crime hate incidents, the Press Association (PA) reports. PA says:
Under current rules, police forces are expected to look into acts which appear to be motivated by hostility towards people with certain characteristics including race, religion, disability or gender, that fall short of being crimes.
Unclear guidance has led to officers being called to people’s homes over “insults and routine arguments”, the government said.
London’s Met Police last year announced it would no longer investigate the incidents after it dropped a probe into social media posts about transgender issues by Father Ted creator Graham Linehan.
There will be no automatic wiping of the incidents from people’s records after the decision, PA understands.
Scrapping non-crime hate incidents will give officers more time to focus on their day-to-day policing, ministers hope.
The move, which comes after a College of Policing and National Police Chiefs’ Council review, will see a tighter definition of what constitutes an incident requiring police involvement.
The Conservatives have responded to the Cornwall Insights energy price cap forecast (see 10.18am) by renewing their call for the government to allow more oil and gas drilling in the North Sea. Claire Coutinho, the shadow energy secretary, said:
Shutting down the North Sea means we are losing out on £25 billion in tax receipts that we could use to cut bills and reduce the cost of living.
The government must adopt the Conservatives’ cheap power plan to cut bills by £200 immediately by taking VAT, taxes and levies off energy bills without costing taxpayers a penny. We would cut bills for everyone rather than taxing working people to fund yet another bailout for people on benefits.
Minister confirms support package may be offered as experts predict energy price cap to rise by £288 in July
From tomorrow the Ofgem price cap goes down from £1,758 to £1,641. The government is highlighting this as one of its cost of living support measures, because the cap is coming down as a result of decisions taken in the budget.
Here is a chart from Ofgem explaining how they calculated the new figure, which will apply for three months (from 1 April to 30 June).
It is important to stress what the price cap actually is. It is not a cap on the amount people will pay for their energy. Many people (around 50%, to be more precise) will pay more, because the cap applies to what can be charged for units of energy, not the overall bill. The Ofgem headline figure is the amount an average household would pay assuming typical household useage.
And it only lasts for three months. There will be a new figure for July to September and this morning Cornwall Insight, an energy consultancy whose price cap forecasts are widely respected in the industry, is predicting that for Q3 the cap will rise to £1,929. That is an increase of £288, or 18%, on April’s cap.
Craig Lowrey, principal consultant at Cornwall Insight, said:
A rise in July is pretty much unavoidable, but how high prices go remains to be seen.
There is some relief in the timing, summer is when energy demand is at its lowest, which should soften the impact on household energy expenditure.
If higher wholesale prices continue, it will be the effects on the October cap that have the most impact, and that is when the question of government support for households is likely to be revisited.
In response, Martin McCluskey, an energy minister, confirmed that the government was willing to intervene to help some consumers with energy costs if necessary. He said.
Tackling the affordability crisis is our number one priority and I know many families will be thinking about how events in the Middle East might impact the cost of living at home.
We will continue to fight people’s corner through this crisis and, as the energy secretary has said, if it’s necessary to intervene, we will.
Grooming gangs inquiry to examine role of ethnicity, culture and religion
The grooming gangs inquiry will directly examine whether ethnicity, culture or religion influenced offending and whether they shaped the institutional response, the Press Association reports.
BMA dismisses Starmer’s 48-hour warning over resident doctors’ strike plan, calling for talks not ‘threats’
Good morning. Keir Starmer is chairing a meeting of the government’s Cobra emergency committee later to discuss the Iran war, but domestic issues don’t go away and he (or, to be more accurate, his staff) have also found time to write an article for the Times delivering a warning to resident doctors in England planning to go on strike. As Jamie Grierson reports, the PM is threatening to withdraw an offer of thousands of extra NHS training posts for resident doctors if they do not call off the strike within 48 hours.
Judging by what Dr Jack Fletcher, chair of the BMA resident doctors committee, told the Today programme in an interview this morning, Starmer may have as little success with his ultimatum as Donald Trump seems to be having with his inconsistent and increasingly apocalyptic warnings to what is left of the Iranian government.
Fletcher told Today:
I’m very happy to sit down with the government at any point to try and negotiate a settlement, but I don’t think that’s done by writing in newspapers and issuing threats unilaterally.
He also claimed that the BMA had been pushed into strike action because the government changed the terms of what it was offering at the last minute. He said:
The government made very late changes to the pay offer, reducing the pay investment and stretching it over a longer period in a way that had not been previously talked about.
Ministers effectively moved the goalposts on the deal at the last minute.
But these negotiations are not about arbitrary cut-offs as the prime minister seems to think.
Any ‘deadline’ disappears the moment there is a credible and sustainable offer on the table.
Our focus remains on getting a good deal for both doctors and for patients, and we are seeking to talk once again with the government later today with every intention of achieving a meaningful outcome that could see the strikes called off and a pay deal we can support.
Asked if it was true that he had personally been in favour of giving his members the option of voting on the pay offer, Fletcher replied:
Two weeks ago, the government took that investment, reduced it, and then stretched it over three years. That is a very, very, very different outcome to the one that we were discussing just two weeks ago.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9am: The Home Office publishes the terms of reference for the national grooming gangs inquiry.
Morning: Zack Polanski, the Green leader, launches his party’s campaign for the Senedd election in Cardiff.
Morning: Kemi Badenoch is on a visit in south-west Hertfordshire.
Morning: John Swinney, the SNP leader and Scottish first minister, is campaigning in Dundee and Stirling. Alex Cole-Hamiliton, the Scottish Lib Dem leader, and Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, are also doing media-focused campaign events.
11am: Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, and Robert Jenrick, his Treasury spokesperson, are holding a press conference at Heathrow airport to publicise a cost of living announcement.
Afternoon: Keir Starmer chairs a meeting of the government’s Cobra emergency committee to discuss the Iran war.
Starmer is also meeting Ahmed al‑Sharaa, president of Syria, in Downing Street at some point today.
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