Broncos-Raiders scouting report: Broncos can gain key foothold in AFC seeding with win over Las Vegas

Broncos (10-2) at Raiders (2-10)

When: 2:05 p.m. Sunday

Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nev.

TV/radio: CBS, 850 AM/94.1 FM

Broncos-Raiders series: The Broncos, of course, beat Las Vegas 10-7 on Thursday Night Football in early November in perhaps the ugliest football game Denver has played this season (and that’s saying something). The Broncos will look for more offensive juice this time around, particularly from Bo Nix, who finished 16-of-28 for 150 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in that last matchup. The Broncos are 56-72-2 all-time in this AFC West divisional rivalry, but have won three straight over the Raiders.

In the spotlight: This is a must-win game for Sean Payton and company, beyond the obvious

Sure, the Broncos need to win on Sunday like they need to win on any Sunday. Particularly against a 2-10 team dealing with more dysfunction than the Kardashians’ old mansion in the Hidden Hills. Particularly when Denver will go on to face four teams with records of .500 or better to finish out the regular season.

But with the Broncos on the hunt for the top seed in the AFC and a first-round playoff bye, this game in Las Vegas suddenly carries significant weight, on the basis of some rather complicated seeding machinations.

There are two key tiebreakers that could determine the AFC this season, with the Broncos sitting at 10-2 behind the top-seeded New England Patriots (11-2). The first: overall conference record. Both Denver and New England are 6-2 this season in the conference, and any loss for either team from this point forward is critical: Four of the Broncos’ final five regular-season matchups are against AFC opponents, and all four of the Patriots’ final games come within the AFC.

The more important factor, though, is a tiebreaker for record against common opponents (second in priority to conference record). The Patriots lost their first game of the season 20-13 to the Raiders, back when times looked a whole lot sunnier in Las Vegas. If the Broncos win on Sunday, they’d have this tiebreaker locked up, a huge point of leverage through the rest of the year.

“Anytime you get a good roll going, and the league kinda feels how you get to these later games — you figure out who gon’ be playoff teams and things like that – we know we gotta tighten up if we want to make this push for real,” defensive tackle Malcolm Roach said.

That starts Sunday, against a Raiders team that made it plenty hard for the Broncos during their Thursday Night matchup in November. This will be the first time that Denver sees a divisional foe for the second time this season, and worlds have shifted in the short month since the Broncos won a sloppy 10-7 TNF game over the Raiders. Buried in a six-game losing streak, Las Vegas head coach Pete Carroll has canned two coordinators — most notably offensive mind Chip Kelly, hired away from national champion Ohio State this offseason to operate a Raiders attack bristling with skill players.

In their first game with interim Greg Olson, though, the Raiders didn’t look much different against the Chargers last Sunday. Veteran QB Geno Smith still handled a majority of the workload, as Las Vegas now has the fourth-highest rate of passing plays in the league this season (61.6%). But rookie RB Ashton Jeanty did get 15 carries, as Olson will be tasked with figuring out how to juice a league-worst rushing attack.

“Just having worked against Pete for so many years, there’s a certain amount of stress you put on your defense when you’re throwing it maybe (two-thirds) – and he wants to establish a running game, and all of that goes into complementary football, time of possession, those type of things,” head coach Sean Payton said Wednesday.

The problem for Las Vegas is that those 15 carries went nowhere. Jeanty averaged 2.1 yards per carry last Sunday, and the 2025 No. 6 pick has run for just 2.3 yards per carry across his last three games. There’s little for the Raiders to do with a largely inept offensive line. And defensive coordinator Vance Joseph went into last November’s matchup essentially daring Las Vegas to run the ball, playing an extra defensive back on 95% of his possessions.

The goal? To limit Raiders superstar tight end Brock Bowers. It worked. Bowers caught just one pass for 31 yards, and Jeanty ran for just 60 yards on 19 carries. And now Joseph has the Defensive Player of the Year back to throw at Las Vegas on Sunday, as Pat Surtain made his return from a partially torn pec against the Commanders last weekend.

Teams like the Browns and Chargers have largely followed Joseph’s lead against the Raiders in recent weeks, playing heavy doses of nickel and dime against a Las Vegas team that can’t get any traction on the ground. It’s probable, too, that Joseph dials up some exotic blitzes against a Raiders offensive line that’s surrendered 25 sacks on Smith across the past four weeks.

“I feel like we control our own destiny,” Surtain said Wednesday. “We sense that each and every week, knowing going up against certain teams, different teams. We know teams are going to give us their best shot, just because the record says that for us.”

Who has the edge?

When Broncos run: This isn’t the same ground game that Las Vegas saw in Week 10, of course, without J.K. Dobbins. But the Broncos’ ground game has quietly sputtered for a month even when Dobbins was healthy. Denver hasn’t eclipsed 100 yards on the ground as a team since October. Las Vegas, too, is tied for third in the NFL in average rushing yards per play (3.8). The Chargers pounded the Raiders on the ground last week in Los Angeles, though, and Denver rookie RB RJ Harvey is due for a breakout game rushing. Edge: Even

When Broncos pass: Bo Nix had arguably his worst game of the season on Thursday Night Football in early November against the Raiders, when national criticism of his play reached an all-time high. In the two games since, Nix has largely shouldered the Broncos’ offense in Dobbins’ stead, as Denver’s thrown the ball on roughly two-thirds of its plays from scrimmage. The second-year quarterback will need the same kind of effort Sunday if Harvey still can’t get going. Slight edge: Broncos

When Raiders run: Yikes. Rookie running back Ashton Jeanty hasn’t eclipsed an average of four yards a carry in any game since early October. Firing offensive coordinator Chip Kelly didn’t help against the Chargers, as Jeanty ran for just 31 yards on 15 carries (2.1 yards per carry). As presently constructed, this is one of the weakest ground games in the NFL. Good teams have been able to pick up some chunk yardage on the ground against this Broncos defense, but this is not a good team. Edge: Broncos

When Raiders pass: Veteran Geno Smith has been slightly more efficient since Denver saw him a few weeks back, but still leads the NFL in interceptions with 14. More importantly, Smith has taken a whopping 19 sacks across the past three weeks. The Broncos’ defensive line has slowed up just a bit after a torrid early-season pace pressuring the quarterback, but they’ll head into Sunday licking their chops. Plus, Joseph has Surtain back and healthy to throw at Las Vegas tight end Brock Bowers. Edge: Broncos

Special teams: The Raiders fired coordinator Tom McMahon after the Broncos’ Thursday Night win in early November, which is about all one needs to know about Las Vegas’ performance on special teams in 2025. Denver’s experienced a notable turnaround under Darren Rizzi, meanwhile, since safety JL Skinner blocked Raiders punter AJ Cole’s boot in that Week 10 matchup. Rookie punter Jeremy Crawshaw has been a standout in that span after going viral for knocking one off his shin — that darn ground wind — against the Raiders, and nearly pinned the Commanders at the one-yard-line last weekend. Edge: Broncos

Coaching: The Raiders have fired two key coordinators in the last month. The Broncos have fired none. Enough said. Heavy edge: Broncos

Tale of the tape

By the numbers

0.4: Ashton Jeanty’s average rushing yards per attempt this season before contact.

3: The number of snaps — of 58 total — that the Broncos played in their base defense against the Raiders in early November, going with heavy doses of defensive-back-heavy formations.

554: The number of yards Raiders cornerback Kyu Blu Kelly has allowed in coverage this year, fourth-most in the NFL.

560: The number of yards Broncos cornerback Riley Moss has allowed in coverage this year, third-most in the NFL.

113: The Raiders’ total quarterback pressures as a defense this year, the lowest amount in the NFL.

4.3: Broncos receiver Marvin Mims’ average yards of separation at the moment of a catch this year, the third-highest mark in the NFL among qualified receivers.

X-factors

Broncos: OLB Jonathon Cooper. He’s still put together some solid efforts against the run, but after a strong start to 2025, Cooper hasn’t managed a single pressure across the past two weeks. The Raiders’ offensive line is full of holes, and this is as good a game as any for the veteran edge rusher to get going again for the stretch run.

Raiders: TE Michael Mayer. In a perfect world where Las Vegas is a better football team, Mayer’s a hugely important piece in this offense, allowing head coach Pete Carroll to run heavy doses of two-tight-end sets with superstar Brock Bowers. Mayer, though, was sidelined against the Chargers last week with an ankle injury, and is questionable against the Broncos this week. His presence could singlehandedly change how Vance Joseph approaches this matchup.

Post predictions

Parker Gabriel, Broncos writer: Broncos 27, Raiders 13

Sean Payton’s team is going to beat somebody handily at some point, right? Right? Bueller? Only two of Denver’s 10 victories this season have come by multiple scores and the past four have come by a total of 10 points. The Broncos are due for a blowout win and a loss or two. Let’s bet they start with the blowout, then get to the business of trying to navigate a tough finishing quartet of games in position to nab the No. 1 seed.