Welcome to March. We are officially two weeks away from Selection Sunday for the 2026 NCAA Tournament, and the race for the final No. 1 seed in the bracket is hemorrhaging contenders. What appeared to be a wide open race just over a week ago may now be down to UConn and hard-charging Florida.

The Huskies aren’t perfect — they had to rally late to beat bubbly Seton Hall at home on Saturday — but they do have an edge in resume metrics over the thinning chase pack. Purdue’s Thursday night home loss to Michigan State, Illinois’ Friday night home loss to Michigan and Iowa State’s Saturday home loss to Texas Tech dropped those teams well back in the race.

Virginia could have staged a late push for the fourth No. 1 seed had it won at Duke on Saturday, but the Cavaliers lost 77-51. It wasn’t long ago that Houston was firmly in the mix, but the Cougars dropped three straight before finally getting back in the win column against lowly Colorado on Saturday.

Then there is Florida. While most of the teams that have been in the mix for the fourth No. 1 seed are losing ground, the Gators have been doing the opposite. Florida clinched a share of the SEC title on Saturday with an 111-77 win over Arkansas, which marked its ninth straight victory. The reigning national champions have been destroying everything in their path while rising in all of the metrics used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee.

Before we dive in further, here’s a look at how the top seed lines look entering Sunday’s action.

Bracketology top seeds

Check out the full field of 68 at the CBS Sports Bracketology hub.

Florida’s room for upward mobility

What makes the race for the final No. 1 seed particularly interesting is the improvement of Florida’s resume. The Gators are already ahead of UConn in predictive metrics and have been for a while. But results-based metrics — what you’ve actually accomplished — are going to carry more weight than predictive metrics (such as KenPom) in the race for a No. 1 seed. 

Florida is up three spots on Sunday to No. 5 in Wins Above Bubble (WAB), which is a vital resume metric. That’s just one spot behind UConn, and the Gators have upward mobility. While Tuesday’s home game against Mississippi State is a nothing-burger, next Saturday’s regular season finale at Kentucky could bring a hefty WAB payout.

By contrast, all UConn has left before the Big East Tournament is next Saturday’s regular season finale at Marquette, which won’t bring much of a resume boost. Assuming UConn and Florida each escape the regular season unscathed, the draws they get in their respective conference tournaments could matter significantly. If Florida stacks a few more resume-enhancing wins in the SEC Tournament, it could narrow its WAB gap on UConn even further.

Does UConn hold a trump card?

With Selection Sunday still two weeks away, the debate is all hypothetical for now. But if the Huskies and Gators are next to each other in the seeding hierarchy on Selection Sunday, UConn holds a potential trump card. The Huskies topped Florida on Dec. 9 inside Madison Square Garden. That was before the Gators hit their stride, but it could be a data point the selection committee considers in a tight race.

There are limitations on the significance of head-to-head results in the seeding process, because upsets are a part of college basketball’s fabric, and leaning too hard into head-to-head could lead to seeding discrepancies. But in a scenario where two teams fighting for a spot on a certain seed line played on a neutral court, it could be something the committee considers.