Heading into a massive Saturday of conference tournament action, spots in the NCAA Tournament are at a premium. The bubble picture remains up in the air, and 11 automatic bids will be awarded throughout the day. There will be particularly high drama in the Mountain West, where Utah State takes on San Diego State for the title.

If the Aztecs lose, there’s a chance the league will send just one team to the NCAA Tournament. Similar questions exist in the Atlantic 10, which will be in semifinal action. If someone other than Saint Louis wins the title, the league will be poised to produce at least two bids. But if the Billikens cut down the nets on Sunday, it may just be a one-bid league.

Bubble teams everywhere will be cheering for Utah State and Saint Louis over the next couple of days.

A year ago, the 40s in WAB (Wins Above Bubble) proved to be the chopping block for at-large consideration. West Virginia was the best team left out with a No. 43 WAB ranking, and Xavier was the worst team to get in with a No. 49 WAB ranking. Every team in the top 40 of WAB is considered a lock for our purposes entering Saturday’s action.

Here is a look at 41-50 in WAB entering Saturday’s action:

41. Missouri*
42. VCU | plays Saturday
43. NC State*
44. Auburn*
45. San Diego State | plays Saturday
46. SMU*
47. Texas*
48. McNeese | clinched automatic bid
49. Oklahoma*
50. Oklahoma State*
*eliminated from conference tournament

These are the teams we are ready to call locks to make the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Other tiers include the “almost there,” “on the bubble” and “longshot” categories

Check out the CBS Sports Bracketology model’s latest bracket at the Bracketology hub

Of course, this exercise pertains to the race for at-large spots. Check out who has clinched an automatic bid here.

ACC

Locks: Duke, Virginia, Louisville, North Carolina, Miami, Clemson
Almost there: NC State
Bubble: SMU
Longshot: Virginia Tech, Stanford, Cal

The only hesitation on NC State stems from how flimsy the resume is when you peel back the layers. The Wolfpack’s best road wins over Clemson and SMU depreciated in value, and a 24-point beatdown of North Carolina comes with an asterisk since UNC was missing stars Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar. A tally of 11 Quad 1/2 victories is great, but there are zero victories against teams ranked in the top 30 of the NET. By comparison, Auburn has four such victories, and Texas has three (including a head-to-head win over NC State). A side-by-side “scrub” of the Wolfpack against those teams in the committee room might go poorly.

Atlantic 10

Lock: Saint Louis
Bubble: VCU

Saint Louis reached lock status by knocking off George Washington 88-81 in the quarterfinals of the Atlantic 10 Tournament on Friday. The Billikens trailed by 21 and would have dropped into the 40s of Wins Above Bubble — also known as the danger zone — with a loss. The Billikens were probably fine already. Now? They should have nothing to worry about, even if they don’t win the A10 Tournament.

Big 12

Locks: Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Kansas, BYU, TCU, UCF

The Big 12 Tournament proved inconsequential for the NCAA Tournament bubble. Longshot hopefuls like Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Cincinnati all wilted early. UCF achieved lock status by knocking out the Bearcats before losing to Arizona in the quarterfinals. It would be a shocker if these eight teams don’t comprise the conference’s dancing contingent when the bracket is revealed.

Big East

Locks: UConn, St. John’s, Villanova
Longshot: Seton Hall

Seton Hall’s at-large aspirations were bleak entering Friday. But they were extinguished in a 78-68 loss to St. John’s in the Big East Tournament semifinals. Though the Pirates have 21 wins, they have just one victory over a projected at-large team (NC State), and they will arrive at Selection Sunday well outside the top 50 in the all-important WAB. This was a great defensive team that merely lacked the offensive firepower to break through for needle-moving wins.

Big Ten

Locks: Michigan, Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Ohio State, UCLA, Iowa
Longshot: Indiana

Because Indiana still averages around 40th nationally in predictive metrics, the Hoosiers are not being pronounced dead yet. But any case for IU would be flimsy since the Hoosiers are not a top-50 team in results-based metrics, which are more closely tied to selection. There is some resemblance to last year’s Xavier team that barely snuck into the field, but even that comparison is a reach for an IU team that has dropped six of its last seven games. The bubble is bad, but it’s not bad enough for Indiana to be legitimately considered.

MAC

Lock: Miami (Ohio)
Bid thief candidates: Akron or Toledo

The MAC is on track to produce a bid thief after Miami suffered its first loss of the season against UMass in the quarterfinals of the league Tournament on Thursday. Miami completed the regular season unbeaten and is on track to arrive at Selection Sunday with a Wins Above Bubble (WAB) score of nearly 2.0, which will likely put them in the top 40 of that vital resume metric. The beauty of WAB is that it allows the committee to compare the achievements of teams that have played vastly different schedules, which is useful since Miami did not play a single Quad 1 game. 

Mountain West

Lock: Utah State
Bubble: San Diego State
Longshot: New Mexico 

San Diego State will still be under at-large consideration if it loses to Utah State in the Mountain West title game on Saturday. But the Aztecs are right along the cut line entering the day. New Mexico dropped from on the bubble to “longshot” status by falling 64-62 against the Aztecs in the semifinals.

SEC

Locks: Florida, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Tennessee, Georgia, Kentucky,  Texas A&M
Almost there: Missouri
Bubble: Texas, Oklahoma, Auburn

Oklahoma came agonizingly close to reaching “almost there” status on Friday by taking Arkansas down to the wire in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals. Ultimately, the Sooners came up just short in an 82-79 loss. Reaching the semifinals was always the target for OU, and it came up one game short. This team played great basketball down the stretch, but at 19-15, the Sooners might be a tough sell in the committee room.

WCC

Locks: Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, Santa Clara

The WCC appears destined to send three teams to the NCAA Tournament after Santa Clara crept from “almost there” to lock status on Thursday morning because of favorable results elsewhere on the bubble. Gonzaga won the WCC Tournament during its final year in the league, but Saint Mary’s and Santa Clara have clearly done enough to be at-large teams in a year where the bubble isn’t very good. There’s not even a question on the Gaels, but Santa Clara’s case was at least somewhat up for debate following its loss to the Zags in the WCC Tournament final. Ultimately, the Bulldogs will arrive at Selection Sunday as a top-40 team across the board in the metrics used by the selection committee.