BBC Expert Predicts Trump Will ‘Escalate’ Iran War As Conflict Hits ‘Inflection Point’


The BBC’s international editor predicted that Donald Trump will end up “escalating” his war with Iran as the conflict hits an “inflection point”.

The US president has promised to postpone his plans to start destroying Iranian energy plants by another 10 days, claiming his negotiations with Tehran are going “very well”.

Iran is yet to publicly respond to Trump’s claims.

The US sent Iran a 15-point peace plan earlier this week, while Tehran has sent back its own proposals for a ceasefire.

But international expert Jeremy Bowen was not convinced either side would be able to reach a compromise.

He told Radio 4′s Today programme: “The Iranians are people who are interested in a deal, but it has to be a deal they would like.

“What we’ve heard so far about Trump’s 15-point plan is that, certainly the version that was leaked from Israeli sources, actually read more like a surrender document.

“It had everything in it that the US and Israel have always asked of Iran, demanded from Iran.”

He said Iran’s counter proposals then suggested ideas the other side couldn’t accept – which means it’ll be exceptionally hard to reach an agreement.

Pointing to the two detachments of US marines which are currently on their way to the Middle East, Bowen said: “Increasingly it is looking as if, if there isn’t a deal, Trump will escalate, maybe take one of the strategic islands in the Gulf.

“People talk a lot about inflection points, but it feels like that at the moment, because if they cannot do a deal, and Iran’s big card is the control of the Strait of Hormuz – which is [applying] great economic pressure – if they can’t do that, what can Donald Trump do?

“He will feel he has to escalate. And escalating will mean involving these troops.”

Bowen also warned that the US has made “a lot of mistakes in the way they look at Iran”, because it is an “institution”.

“The reason why the regime has proved to be so resilient is, unlike Libya under Gaddafi, it has these institutions, it is not based on individuals,” the expert said.

Former MI6 chief, Sir John Sawers, also claimed Trump was caught between a rock and a hard place right now.

He told the Today programme: “Trump could have declared a unilateral victory two weeks ago and walked away.

“But now with the Strait of Hormuz closed, it’s very difficult for him to claim credible victory without some movement on the Iranian side.”

He said he does not believe these negotiations will “prosper”, especially as the US has not proved to be a “very reliable interlocutor for the Iranians”.

He added that negotiations usually take weeks, but the president is clearly “in a bit of a hurry” to get any deal over the line because of the damage the war is doing to the US economy.