Closing schools, stalled housing starts — not common headlines in Alberta’s booming cities.

But that’s been the case in Medicine Hat, Alta., where low population growth since 2010 now paints a forecast of near stagnation for the next 25 years as other Alberta centres grow steadily.

A Statistics Canada report in January predicted Alberta’s largest cities — and even the small and mid-sized centres in their orbits — will continue to grow rapidly, as the province moves above seven million residents by the middle of the century.

But figures for Medicine Hat are generally flat, an issue that has coloured civic elections and coffee shop discussions.

Academics say that is a symptom of the increased economic gravity of the Highway 2 corridor in the province and will be hard to reverse.

But the mayor of Medicine Hat says the city is hoping to beat expectations. 

“I’m hopeful and pretty confident that we’ll grow at a steady pace,” Mayor Linnsie Clark told CBC News.

She first came to office in 2021 campaigning on “smart growth,” and stating the Hat should grow to 110,000 residents to better use existing infrastructure and to raise tax assessment without raising the tax burden on individuals. 

“There’s a lot of opportunity to grow … we definitely want to do so in a strategic manner,” Clark said this month.

For that to happen, however, the city of 68,700 residents today would have to grow at a rate 20 times higher than predicted by Statistics Canada.

Its medium growth scenario is for 71,700 residents by 2050 — less than one-tenth the growth forecast for some other mid-sized cities.

A net loss of population is the worst case, though Clark points to positive signals.

After years of controversy, and a major remake of city hall’s economic development office, Clark says city council is ready to work together.

It has hinted the city-owned power plant could announce new clients soon, and recent federal defence announcements align with a city goal of building an aerospace hub.

But the good news is contrasted by moves to consolidate schools, and the city will lose commercial flights into the Medicine Hat airport this summer. 

Forecast sees minimal growth

Located 300 kilometres east of Calgary, Medicine Hat has seen more deaths than births each year since 2018. Estimates state there was a bump in migration last year, and a full census is planned this year.

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A Statistics Canada analyst told CBC News local forecasts are “reference points” and less reliable than provincial or national numbers. The agency cannot consider all local zoning or business conditions across Canada, so it blends past data and the provincial outlook.

In Medicine Hat’s case, the city grew quickly before the natural gas prices collapsed in the late 2000s, but slowly since. 

Strong tide can turn, say experts 

Kevin McQuillan of the School of Public Policy at the University of Calgary also warns against reading too much into localized projections.

“Lots of things can change between now and 2050, particularly for small and mid-sized communities,” he told CBC News. 

Alberta overall has good natural growth (births minus deaths), he said, and has “been successful at every level” attracting international and interprovincial migrants. 

“At the local level it’s more iffy, and depends on the economic profile of those communities. If you do get chosen [for a new manufacturing plant or data centre] it will certainly stimulate growth. If you don’t it’s obviously a tougher go.”

Big cities’ gravity draws in-province migration

The “low growth” figure for Medicine Hat sees it lose 4,000 citizens by 2050, while a “high-growth scenario” sees it add 10,000 — about 0.5 per cent growth annually.

Alberta as a whole grew six times faster than that over the last two years.

Statistics Canada suggests Calgary and Edmonton could be 60 per cent larger in 2050.

Airdrie would leap-frog Red Deer and Lethbridge to become Alberta’s third largest city, and other satellite communities like Chestermere, Cochrane, Spruce Grove and Leduc could be 49 to 134 per cent larger.

Lars Hallstrom, who studies demographics and economics with the Prentice Institute at the University of Lethbridge, says municipalities outside the Highway 2 corridor will be stressed.

He sees a 100-kilometre “bubble” around major centres where nearby rural communities benefit as costs and congestion rise in the big cities.

Further out, and the flow is reversed, with towns and even sizable cities losing younger workers.

Aging communities and lower economic activity then hamper attraction efforts, he said.

“Yeah, they’re kind of a perfect storm,” Hallstrom said, saying that it is relatively new that a mid-sized city in Alberta is facing population decline — a discussion usually reserved for much smaller towns.

Medicine Hat could be “the thin edge of the wedge,” Hallstrom said.

Clark said city hall is heavily focused on maintaining existing business, and selling the city as a destination for workers and investment.

“We do have growing industry in the city, and actually our workforce infrastructure can be a limiter on that,” she said. “We need to do a better job of attracting workers.”