Arsenal and Manchester City could be headed to a stunning Premier League title play-off if a series of metrics are met

Arsenal and Manchester City are embroiled in a fierce battle for the Premier League title as the campaign hurtles towards its climax. Mikel Arteta and Pep Guardiola’s teams will clash in a pivotal showdown at the Etihad on Sunday afternoon.

The Gunners faltered last Saturday, suffering a 2-1 defeat to Bournemouth on home turf. The Citizens responded on Sunday by thrashing Chelsea 3-0 at Stamford Bridge, leaving City six points adrift of Arsenal, while holding a game in hand ahead of this Sunday’s encounter. The race is well and truly on.

There’s even the remarkable prospect that both clubs could be compelled to contest a title-deciding play-off should they finish the campaign level on points. Several factors would need to align for this scenario to materialise, though.

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Most significantly, Arsenal and City would need to share a 1-1 draw at the Etihad on Sunday, the identical scoreline the two sides produced in their previous meeting at the Emirates last September.

Multiple other criteria must also be satisfied for a dramatic play-off to occur, with Arsenal having five fixtures remaining beyond Sunday and City having six. The initial tie-breaker employed to separate teams level on points at the season’s end is overall goal difference, where Arsenal currently hold a three-goal advantage.

This figure is calculated by deducting the total number of goals conceded from the total goals scored across the entire season. As it happens, City remain the only club in history to have claimed a Premier League title on goal difference.

This took place in 2012, when Sergio Aguero’s iconic last-gasp strike against QPR saw the Sky Blues finish level on points with local rivals Manchester United, yet claim the title. Should City and Arsenal still be level after goal difference, the second tiebreaker is the total number of goals scored, with just one separating them at present in City’s favour.

If the two sides remain inseparable after those measures, attention then turns to their head-to-head record. Should one team win on Sunday they would gain the upper hand, while a draw of 2-2 or more would give Arsenal the advantage on away goals scored.

However, should the upcoming fixture end 1-1, and all other statistical tiebreakers remain unchanged, we would enter truly rare and breathtaking territory. This would mean both teams had perfectly mirrored one another across every measurable criterion within the rules.

The ultimate and most extraordinary scenario for a deadlocked title race would be a one-off play-off match at a neutral ground. The Premier League handbook doesn’t confirm any particular location, most likely because it has never previously arisen.

This winner-takes-all fixture would only come about if the Premier League board concludes that the two clubs cannot be separated by any other means. Yet events could still take an even more dramatic turn.

Should a play-off fixture be necessary and City and Arsenal remain level after 90 minutes, the match would progress to 30 minutes of extra time.

If the stalemate still cannot be resolved following the additional period, a penalty shoot-out would then determine who lifts the 2025/2026 title, and would undoubtedly, in an instant, become the most dramatic moment in Premier League history.

The prospect could be a daunting one for Arsenal. The last winner-takes-all encounter between the two sides was March’s Carabao Cup final, where Guardiola’s side won 2-0, handing them something of a psychological edge should any play-off ever materialise.

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