What will happen next? 4 possible scenarios

Donald Trump is prone to apocalyptic language, but has never used it to this degree in the war with Iran. He has threatened “a whole civilization will die tonight” unless Iran capitulates.

The U.S. president has a track record, in both politics and business, for ratcheting up the pressure immediately before a deadline to make a deal. He seeks the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is resistant because it is their greatest leverage.

Here are four scenarios on what might happen next:

1) Trump announces a deal

The two sides are in talks, albeit indirectly. Trump may announce they have struck a deal or are close enough to one. The details will matter here. 

In January he set a deadline to acquire Greenland, then announced a “framework of a future deal,” even though one has never appeared. That won’t be possible with Iran. Either ships will be moving through the strait, or they will still face risk.

Trump is under pressure from Congress and some in his own administration to find any off-ramp and accept nearly any deal. But there is a countervailing force, led by Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, to continue attacks to achieve a more punishing agreement from Iran.

2) No deal, attacks continue 

If there is no deal, the war may continue much as it has been. Trump may continue to escalate the rhetoric, but the rate and nature of military targeting stays the same. 

3) Striking Iran’s oil infrastructure

Earlier in the conflict, the U.S. asked Israel to limit its attacks on Iran’s oil infrastructure. Long-term damage to Iran’s ability to produce, export and ship oil would leave the gas price at significantly elevated levels for years. That has not yet happened. But destruction of Kharg Island, where Iran exports 90 per cent of its oil, would destroy the country’s economy and leave oil globally in a difficult position. That makes this a less likely option.

4) Massive increase in attacks

Before threatening to kill the entire civilization (which would only be possible with the very, very unlikely use of a nuclear weapon), Trump said he would target Iran’s power plants and bridges. 

This would involve a combination of precision strikes using fighter aircraft and guided missiles, and attacks from B-52 aircraft which can carry thousands of pounds of explosive ordnance. 

It would be an effort to violently push the regime into capitulation. While the top echelon of the regime has been killed, it still leads the country — with no signs yet that it is about to crack.