It’s a shame when an artist’s first album ends up being their best. Weezer’s Blue Album, The Strokes’ Is This It and Nas’s Illmatic, while all extraordinary, were also followed by cautionary tales of getting too comfortable and losing one’s initial hunger and essence after experiencing early success.  

What’s known as selling out in the music industry can easily be transferred to losing buy-in when applied to basketball. The Toronto Raptors’ last couple games — a loss to the Cade Cunningham-less Detroit Pistons and a failure against the Western Conference-worst Sacramento Kings — have lacked requisite effort and discipline, dropping them into play-in tournament positioning.

As Raptors head coach Darko Rajaković put it after his team’s loss to the Kings: “When you don’t approach the game from the start with the level of intensity and attention to detail that you need to have, this is the outcome.” 

Of course, one of the NBA’s worst three-point shooting teams missing their most proficient shooter, Immanuel Quickley, has also been a factor. But the six-foot-two guard’s absence had little to do with the Raptors being minus-16 on the glass and minus-19 in second-chance points against Sacramento on Wednesday.

Now, Toronto has fallen to seventh in the East, as its record is tied with the division-rival Philadelphia 76ers, who hold the tiebreaker and consequently jumped the Raptors for the final proper playoff spot.  

There are other teams that could factor in on the periphery, but the race for sixth appears poised for a photo finish between the Raptors and 76ers. Every slight advantage that can be mined down the stretch will matter, and the two squads’ strength of schedule will be under the microscope as they aim to avoid the volatility of a one- or two-game play-in scenario.

Let’s examine the outlook for Toronto and Philadelphia over the season’s final six games as they, in RJ Barrett’s words: “play like our lives depend on it.” 

While strength of schedule often shakes out to a relatively fair balance over the course of an entire season, it can be a harsher factor over a smaller sample, particularly when every game counts in a tight playoff race. Toronto has the upper hand here.

Philadelphia is set to run a veritable gauntlet that includes games against the Minnesota Timberwolves, Detroit Pistons, San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets over its next four contests. Its final six opponents have a combined .558 winning percentage, giving the 76ers the fourth-most difficult strength of schedule remaining. They also have two back-to-backs left.

The Raptors are looking at a mixed bag. Pulling off wins against Eastern Conference giants in the Boston Celtics and New York Knicks will be a tall task — Toronto’s a combined 0-6 against both this season. However, the Raptors also have two games left against the Miami Heat, who they’ve dominated and who also happen to be in the midst of a 2-8 stretch.

Ultimately, Toronto’s strength of schedule is far friendlier than Philly’s due to Friday’s game against the lowly Memphis Grizzlies (Sportsnet, Sportsnet+, 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT) and its season finale against the even-lowlier Brooklyn Nets. The Raptors’ final six adversaries win at a combined .486 clip, good for 19th leaguewide.

Philadelphia does have the edge in a couple of other areas, though. The Raptors and 76ers have split their season series, rendering the first tiebreaker, head-to-head record, moot. But the next tiebreaker is divisional record, where Philly’s 9-7 will be insurmountable for the Raptors, who are 4-10 against Atlantic division foes.

This essentially gives the 76ers an additional game in the standings, as the Raptors will have to secure a better record outright to pass them. Canadian sports fans are well aware of the importance a tiebreaker can hold after the Toronto Blue Jays’ 2025 American League East title hinged on holding the tiebreaker over the New York Yankees.

And while Joel Embiid’s health is a perpetual question mark, the 76ers are at full strength otherwise. Paul George has returned after missing most of the season between an off-season knee procedure and 25-game banned-substance suspension — and he’s been lighting it up. After struggling to start the season, the 35-year-old former MVP finalist is averaging 28 points and seven rebounds per contest over four games since returning. George dropped 39 on 15-of-22 shooting in his most recent game on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the Raptors are attempting to navigate an injury to their starting point guard. Immanuel Quickley has missed six straight games with plantar fasciitis and has been seen wearing a walking boot. Before Toronto’s game against the New Orleans Pelicans on March 27, Rajaković said that the only way for the injury to fully heal would be for Quickley to be off his feet for multiple weeks, a luxury the team doesn’t have.

However, the sharpshooting guard was playing through the pain prior to sitting and Rajaković said that Quickley is “going to be available to play.” Just not yet, as he is listed as out against the Grizzlies on the NBA’s injury report.

Considering that Toronto ranks 26th in three-point makes, 25th in attempts and 23rd in percentage, it can’t afford to be without its best three-point shooter for long. And make no mistake, Quickley may be tied for third in percentage on the Raptors, but he is their most important shooter.

Toronto has a dearth of pull-up three-point shooting, ranking last in the league in attempts by a wide margin. Quickley is the only player on the team that takes and makes this more difficult shot type at a high volume. He’s shooting 33.7 per cent during his time as a Raptor — above league average — while accounting for nearly 40 per cent of the team’s attempts on a per-game basis. Without Quickley, the Raptors’ pull-up three-point shooting is non-existent. They’re averaging 3.2 per game since he’s gone down, less than 29 individual players across the league.

The Raptors and 76ers are thoroughly intertwined. From Scottie Barnes and Tyrese Maxey’s comical relationship, to ex-Raptor greats Kyle Lowry and Nick Nurse leading the way in Philly, to the infamous Kawhi shot during the teams’ second-round series in 2019 — there’s no shortage of compelling connections in this rivalry.

Not all play-in spots are created equal

The top 10 spots may be decided in each conference, but the battle for seeding is important, particularly in the packed play-in picture. The middle of the East remains tight with Nos. 6 through 10 still only separated by 2.5 games.

The Raptors and the feel-good Charlotte Hornets currently occupy Nos. 7 and 8 in the standings, meaning they would play for a playoff spot, and the loser would play the winner of the 9-10 game for the eighth and final true post-season berth.

That means that the Orlando Magic — who were in fifth just two weeks ago — and the Miami Heat would be fighting it out under the heat of the Florida sun in a one-and-done scenario if the season ended today.

This highlights the importance of nabbing one of the top two play-in spots. Having only two games to punch your ticket is still risky, but every extra chance is meaningful.

The West is more straightforward. With the Phoenix Suns now 4.5 games back of the sixth seed, their chase for a straight-up playoff berth is effectively over.

The Suns and Golden State Warriors have significant separation at the top and bottom of the West’s play-in picture, meaning the Los Angeles Clippers catching the Portland Trail Blazers to earn the coveted eighth spot is the most probable shift here.

The Clippers’ erratic season makes them tough to read, but there is reason to believe they have what it takes for a push. They started 13-23 before rattling off a 10-4 run in the lead up to the trade deadline. Then, Lawrence Frank and co. sold anyway, dealing James Harden and Ivica Zubac seemingly with an eye for the future.

Despite overhauling the roster, the Clippers have maintained a steady pace. They’re 16-11 since the deadline as acquisitions Darius Garland and Bennedict Mathurin have found a new gear.

Not to mention that Kawhi Leonard is playing his best basketball since the Raptors’ championship season. If the Clippers have aspirations of going on a significant run, he’ll need to stay healthy and lead the way.