Albertans can use offshore gambling services to bet on the likelihood of the province separating from Canada, and that concerns experts who feel that wagering on public policy could influence the results of a possible referendum and make the question vulnerable to market manipulation.

Alberta separatism has appeared on Kalshi and Polymarket, two highly visible online gambling platforms that offer prediction markets.

Prediction markets enable users to make bets on the likelihood of future events. That encompasses everything from political policy to when a meteor will hit the Earth to whether or not a celebrity couple will get divorced. The gambling platforms pay the users who predict correctly, with the odds determined by other users’ bets (as opposed to sports betting, where the odds are set by the gambling service itself).

Prediction markets are restricted in certain parts of the world, including Ontario.

“Betting on political events is prohibited across Canada because of the risk of manipulation and insider information. Alberta is aligning with that standard,” Minister of Service Alberta Dale Nally said in a statement. “There is no legal market in Alberta for betting on ‘Alberta separatism,’ and Albertans should avoid unregulated offshore sites.”

Right now on Kalshi, there is an open bet for the question: “Will Alberta vote to secede from Canada?” As of Tuesday afternoon, there was a 19.2 per cent chance for “yes,” meaning that a $10 bet will yield a $43 payout. That same $10 bet will yield a $12 payout if Alberta does not vote to secede from Canada. There has been $50,634 US wagered on Kalshi on that question. 

While CBC News could not place any bets on Kalshi, Polymarket allowed us to bet on the question, “Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?” As of Tuesday afternoon, there was $32,590 US wagered on Polymarket on that question. Polymarket gives a 16 per cent chance of the “yes” side winning. Betting $10 will result in a $55.44 payout if Alberta votes for independence, and $11.64 if Alberta does not vote for independence. 

On Tuesday, the Canadian Press reported that organizers with Stay Free Alberta, a pro-separatist group, have gathered enough signatures to trigger a referendum. They still have another month to deliver the names to Elections Alberta for verification.

Gambling researchers are worried of the possible ramifications to how people may vote if they see these results ahead of time. 

“It’s possible that seeing what wagers are being placed may skew the perception of what the situation really is,” said Carrie Shaw, chair of the Alberta Gambling Research Institute and an assistant professor at the University of Alberta.

“What is the percentage of Albertans that really do want to separate? If they are looking at the speculative market and see that there’s a lot of people, very vocal people, that are making large wagers, they may actually perceive that there’s a greater percentage of people that wish to separate than there really is.”

An Abacus Data poll that surveyed 1,000 Albertans in late February suggested about a quarter of them support the province leaving Canada, but the majority — nearly two-thirds — are against it.

Robert Williams, the research co-ordinator at the gambling institute and a professor at the University of Lethbridge, said research shows prediction markets are more accurate than political polling, and they can influence the behaviour of voters.

“It will influence their perception, whether it’s positively or negatively,” he said.

He compared it to how voting results don’t get announced until after polls close. 

“It’s helping shape opinion, whereas it should be the other way around — opinion is shaping the markets.”

Recent change in Alberta gaming policy

Earlier in March, the Alberta Gaming, Liquor and Cannabis Commission changed one of its regulations for new entrants into the market, saying that “bets on political events (e.g. elections, byelections, leadership contests) are prohibited.” That applies to operators that will begin working in Alberta when the province opens up its betting market, but not offshore platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. 

“AGLC does not have that ability or authority,” the agency said in a statement. “AGLC does encourage Albertans to [be] cautious about fraudulent online gaming sites and provides some guidance for how to spot illegal gaming activities in campaigns such as Spot the Fraud.” 

CBC News reached out to Alberta’s Office of the Ethics Commissioner with questions about conflict of interest rules for MLAs and government staff, guidelines related to gambling on political or policy outcomes, and consequences if those rules are violated, but did not hear back from the office before our deadline.

The NDP says that betting on separatism is creating more uncertainty in the province.

“The fact that Alberta’s future is now being treated as a betting market should alarm everyone,” Gurinder Brar, the NDP shadow minister for Service Alberta, said in a statement. “This is yet another example of how even the talk of separatism creates instability and unintended consequences for all Albertans.”