Alberta’s incoming no-fault insurance system could cut premiums for passenger and commercial vehicle drivers, but hike prices for motorcyclists, a new actuarial report says.

In a more than 200-page analysis prepared by the consulting firm Oliver Wyman for the Automobile Insurance Rate Board (AIRB), actuaries compare the cost of providing health benefits similar to those offered by Manitoba Public Insurance, while also covering insurance companies’ costs, including a six per cent profit.

The report estimates that under the new system, Albertans could buy basic passenger vehicle insurance for $366 less per year compared to the current model, and full coverage for $231 less.

About three-quarters of Alberta vehicles have full coverage, and a quarter have basic insurance, according to an AIRB spokesperson.

Aaron Sutherland, the Insurance Bureau of Canada’s vice-president for Western Canada, said the report shows a revamped insurance system will save consumers money.

“It will also vastly expand the quality of care and recovery benefits that people receive if they’re injured in a collision,” Sutherland said. ”I really see a win-win here for Albertans.”

An Edmonton personal injury lawyer who wants Alberta’s government to preserve injured motorists’ right to sue is more skeptical.

Karamveer Lalh, secretary of the Alberta Civil Trial Lawyers Association, said there are too many unknowns to feel confident in the estimates, which he takes with “more than one grain of salt.”

He said while many people who are injured in crashes will no longer be able to fight for substantial compensation in court, any potential cost savings for all drivers are less certain.

“That’s a very bad trade-off,” Lalh said.

Last year, the legislature passed a bill to transition Alberta’s private automobile insurance system to a no-fault model, starting Jan. 1, 2027.

The system would put substantial limits on the province’s current tort-based system, where people with severe injuries can sue drivers for compensation.

Finance Minister Nate Horner has said legal fees are partly responsible for driving up the cost of insurance premiums in the province.

The Oliver Wyman report says Alberta passenger vehicle insurance premiums rose 57 per cent over a decade, ending in 2024.

While players prepare for the transition, the province has capped auto insurance rate increases, which the Insurance Bureau of Canada says has led six companies to stop selling auto insurance in Alberta since 2023.

The actuaries’ report notes limitations in its estimates.

“There is significant uncertainty in pricing a new insurance product,” they write, adding that the government hasn’t adopted all the regulations yet, or finalized health-care treatment fees.

The government initially said that Albertans should save $400 a year on premiums, but have since revised that number.

In a statement on Friday, Horner said he’s encouraged to see the report highlight potential premium savings.

“Our government will work hard to keep industry accountable so that these projected savings become a reality in 2027,” his statement said.

Sutherland said the report will inform how the AIRB considers rates for approval.

He said once the new model takes effect, Alberta will have the most generous collision injury benefits in the country, while still allowing lawsuits in some cases.

“I really see a lot to be positive about here,” Sutherland said.

Motorists injured as the result of a crime such as impaired driving, or whose lost income is not fully replaced by insurance, could still launch legal actions, according to Lalh.

He said he is doubtful of the estimates because actuaries compare Alberta’s incoming system with Manitoba Public Insurance, which is no-fault, but lacks profit motives and competition.

Lalh said Alberta is proposing a tribunal system similar to Ontario’s, which hears disputes about auto insurance benefits.

In Ontario, which has private insurance, the tribunal hears almost 16,000 cases a year, compared to a couple of hundred in Manitoba, he said. Lalh said he questions whether the costs of those procedures are factored into Alberta’s premium estimates.

Private insurance companies also have discretion over how they administer benefits, he said.

“It may be cheaper to cut someone off [benefits] and then pay them off at the tribunal, as opposed to continuing to maintain that claim over the course of a person’s life,” Lalh said.