Despite global turmoil, Alberta’s economy is better positioned than others to endure the uncertainty because of rising oil prices, according to ATB’s latest economic outlook.

The report, released by the financial institution on Thursday, found geopolitical crises such as the war in Iran and ships being unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz have massively shaken up energy markets. 

However, as Canada’s largest oil producer, Alberta is expected to weather the storm better than other provinces, ATB’s chief economist Mark Parsons said in an interview with CBC News. 

“The surge in oil prices — we think that’s going to shield Alberta from the worst of it,” he said. 

The report looks at real and nominal GDP. ATB now projects there will be 2.7 per cent growth in real GDP in Alberta in 2026, up from its December forecast of 2.1 per cent, while it now anticipates a six per cent increase in the province’s nominal GDP, up from the 0.7 per cent it projected in December.

“Higher oil prices means we get more for every barrel we produce,” Parsons said, noting that nominal GDP looks at the value of what is being produced. 

“That’s a big income left to the province. Real GDP is economic activity — jobs — like whether that money translates into more of the volume of output we produce, or more employment.

“We expect a big jump in nominal GDP because we’re earning more money, but not the same increase in real GDP because not all that additional money is going to be spent in the economy.”

Parsons acknowledged that the revised — and improved —  forecast may not land with some who say life is still expensive with high prices at gas pumps and grocery stores. 

“The cost of living is going up,” he said. “This isn’t going to happen overnight, where people are going to feel better about their employment prospects.

“It’s a bit of a relative thing. I think that’s why you’re seeing people — quarter after quarter — continuing to move to Alberta. It’s not because there aren’t challenges in Alberta, it’s just that conditions are better here than elsewhere.”

Richard Masson, a former CEO of the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission, said market volatility is something to watch out for. 

“This report has increased the WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil price forecast for 2026 to $75 US a barrel, which is up a fair bit from where it was,” he said in an interview with CBC News. “But the world is actually in much worse shape, I think, than that reflects. 

“And I expect over the coming weeks, we’re going to find that there’s just not enough oil and natural gas around and prices are going to continue to face upward pressure around the world.

“So that’s going to result in more revenue for Alberta companies and for governments. And the question will be, what does it mean for investment and for jobs, right?” 

WATCH | ATB offers new economic outlook for Alberta amid global turmoil:

ATB Financial expects Alberta to weather the world’s economic storm

A report from ATB Financial says Alberta is in a better financial position than much of the country, even as the world faces increased economic uncertainty due to conflict in the Middle East. CBC’s Nicole Healey has more on how rising oil prices could impact the province.

CBC News requested comment from Alberta Treasury Board and Finance on ATB’s latest economic outlook.

“Alberta’s government knows our province is well-positioned to weather current economic uncertainty, even as global pressures affect costs,” said Marisa Breeze, senior press secretary to Finance Minister Nate Horner. 

“Alberta entered this period on strong footing, with roughly 85,000 jobs added over the past year, unemployment down to a two-year low of 6.3 per cent, and continued growth in oil production and exports.

“As a net energy exporter, Alberta is also positioned to weather higher oil prices, which can support stronger GDP growth, higher incomes and increased revenues, even as we remain mindful of cost pressures on households.”