The Detroit Tigers will be one of the most interesting teams in the majors this year as that franchise is truly all-in to win its first World Series since 1984. One reason that ownership is ready to do what’s necessary in 2026 is that ace and two-time Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal is set for free agency after the season. He gets the call in Thursday’s season opener at San Diego with a 4:10 ET first pitch on the MLB Network. It’s also our first true look at touted Detroit rookie Kevin McGonigle. 

While I will get to Skubal, let’s start with a fairly significant AL futures change over the past week-plus. When I looked at the AL Rookie of the Year race back on March 16 on CBS Sports, Blue Jays pitcher Trey Yesavage was the +370 favorite and Tigers shortstop Kevin McGonigle was the +500 second favorite. It was no sure thing the No. 2 overall prospect in the sport would break camp out of Lakeland, Fla., with the big club as he was considered a bit of a longer shot to do so since he hadn’t played above Double-A.

But McGonigle, a heist as the No. 37 overall pick in the 2023 draft out of high school, made the roster by slashing .250/.423/.500 this spring with two homers, drawing 11 walks and striking out only eight times in 52 plate appearances. Scouts grade players on a scale of 20-80 and McGonigle’s hit tool is 70. 

While his place in the Tigers’ lineup is unknown, manager A.J. Hinch said he would see time at shortstop and third base. The 21-year-old will join a short list of Tigers legends to start on Opening Day before their 22nd birthday, a group that includes Hall of Famers Ty Cobb, Al Kaline, Alan Trammell and Harry Heilmann. McGonigle will become the youngest member of the team’s Opening Day lineup since Omar Infante started at short in 2003 at age 21.

“We’re trying to win the World Series – and Kevin McGonigle helps us get there. We feel his preparation and his routines that he developed during the spring were foundational enough to make him part of this,” Hinch said. 

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Not sure this Tigers team wins the Fall Classic as constituted, but +110 to win the AL Central seems like stealing. While Yesavage has dropped to a +700 fifth favorite for AL ROY in part due to opening on the injury list, McGonigle is the new leader at +380 and is -188 for his first big-league hit today.

As for Skubal, there is no doubt in my mind that he will become the highest-paid pitcher in MLB history – until Paul Skenes hits free agency – this winter as a free agent, and the smaller-market Tigers simply can’t afford to pay him the minimum $400 million that Skubal will seek and get. As it is, he’s making an arbitration-record $32 million salary this year.

The southpaw is the +350 favorite to win a third straight AL Cy Young, which has never happened. Only two did it in the National League, where both Greg Maddux (1992-95) and Randy Johnson (1999-2002) won four straight Cy Youngs well before the Senior Circuit adopted the DH.

It marks the third straight Opening Day assignment for Skubal, the first Tigers pitcher to do that since future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander (now back with the club) started nine Opening Days in a 10-year span from 2008-17. Strangely enough, Skubal will have made all three on the road. He threw six scoreless innings at the White Sox to win on March 28, 2024, but allowed four runs in five innings in a loss at Dodger Stadium in 2025.

The 29-year-old has made just one career start against San Diego and threw six shutout innings in a 2022 no-decision. Skubal lost his first two starts last season, then didn’t lose again until July 11. He went 10-0 with a 1.62 ERA in between defeats. He’s set at Over/Under 17.5 outs and 7.5 strikeouts. The SportsLine Projection Model has Skubal at 6.6 innings pitched and 7.7 strikeouts.

The Padres have made the playoffs in back-to-back years, but manager Mike Shildt retired in the offseason and was replaced by former San Diego reliever Craig Stammen. He had been working in the team’s front office and is +1000 for NL Manager of the Year. I’m not sure what to think of San Diego, which seems to have plateaued and is coming back to Earth a bit. It has a win total of 83.5 and is +100 for a playoff spot. The Padres lost former batting champion Luis Arraez to free agency as well as No. 2 starting pitcher Dylan Cease. 

Veteran righty Nick Pivetta gets the call today, his first Opening Day start, and he got the nod over last year’s OD starter in Michael King, who was re-signed. The 33-year-old Pivetta comes off a career season in which he was 13-5 with a 2.87 ERA and 0.99 WHIP (fifth in majors). That included seven shutout innings in an April 2025 win in Detroit. He was the team’s Game 1 starter in the Wild Card round and finished sixth in the NL Cy Young voting.

I don’t put too much stock into spring stats, but Pivetta had 8.25 ERA and 2.08 WHIP in four Cactus League appearances this year spanning 12 innings. No Tigers batter has particularly great splits off him. 

Tigers vs. Padres same-game parlay

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Let’s take a one-run Detroit loss out of the equation as I do worry about the team’s lineup a bit – perhaps McGonigle solves that problem. If the Tigers can hit a little, they can win the pennant. But I have faith in Skubal to keep this total down and his team close. Petco Park is a pitcher-friendly place and our model has eight total runs scored. Check out other expert picks in the daily newsletter.