Cinderella-less Sweet 16 represents new normal for March Madness



Cinderella-less Sweet 16 represents new normal for March Madness

Midnight is arriving early for college basketball’s would-be Cinderellas. For the fourth consecutive year, the men’s NCAA tournament will feature just one double-digit seed, 11th-seeded Texas, as the transfer portal and name, image and likeness budgets make it harder for small schools to compete.

It would be disingenuous to call the Longhorns a true underdog. The team started this year’s tournament in the First Four play-in round, but Texas’ program boasts a $22 million budget. It’s the fourth-best funded basketball team in the nation, according to a report by Extra Points. 

The spending is even higher when you account for the newly approved revenue sharing with players or the athletes’ endorsement and sponsorship deals. 

“I don’t think we ever really want to sign up to be the Cinderella story, because we are the University of Texas,” Longhorns coach Sean Miller told reporters after qualifying for the Sweet 16. “And, look, we represent the SEC as well.”

With the only potential candidate opting out of the label, sports analysts were ready to make their collective declaration: The days of Cinderella during March Madness have expired. 

“For the most part, it’s over. You might have the Cinderella win, but you’re not going to have the Cinderella run,” ESPN’s Joe Fortenbaugh said on “First Take.” “That’s the difference. … The teams at the top have always had the advantage, but now they have the money. The money is compounding the difference.”

This shifting reality hasn’t surprised college basketball die-hards. Even before this year’s NCAA Tournament began, fan-made brackets across the country were picking fewer underdogs than ever before. 

“Cinderellas are dead,” ESPN college analyst Jay Williams said before the bracket was finalized. 

The issue is two-fold, though both prongs are intrinsically linked to finances. Top-tier teams can more easily poach promising talent from smaller schools, and players at those well-financed programs are extending their collegiate careers. 

“If you’re a player who’s averaging 18 on a Cinderella team, you know what I’m going to do if I’m the bottom of the ACC? Oh, I’ll give you $600,000. Come on over here,” Williams said. “That’s what’s happening over and over and over again. … All these guys are being picked off these teams.”

Texas’ entire starting lineup consists of transfer players who joined the Longhorns. In Texas, their earning potential sees a steep jump. With NCAA regulations allowing more transfers, players have little incentive to remain at a smaller school.

“I think that parity is great for the game, but things change,” Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd said. “I think once finances become part of it, there’s going to be a breaking point for some of the lesser programs that just don’t have the finances. And that’s just an obvious statement.”

The players already starring on a big-name team have little incentive to leave for the professional ranks, either. Prior to the name, image and likeness era, players were encouraged to flee the college level as quickly as possible to capitalize on their athletic prime. 

But the economic difference between playing on an NBA rookie contract and playing at an elite college basketball program is smaller than ever. BYU’s AJ Dybantsa, a potential top pick in this year’s NBA draft, is making more than $4 million in endorsements in college, according to On3. For comparison, Charlotte Hornets guard Kon Knueppel, the betting favorite for the NBA’s Rookie of the Year award, has a $10 million salary this season.

The difference between college endorsements and NBA rookie deals shrinks for players taken later in the draft. 

Michigan’s Yaxel Landeborg, 23, is considered a potential mid-first-round selection in the upcoming draft. Based on the NBA’s rookie wage scale, he could make between $3 million and $4 million in his first professional season. 

With the Wolverines, he’s already earning about $2 million, according to On3. 

The golden era of upsets saw Cinderella teams with seasoned rosters competing against elite underclassmen who would be joining the NBA shortly. With money flowing into college basketball rosters, the top teams are getting older. 

“Now, you’re seeing guys come back to these high-major teams at 23, 22,” Jeremiah Jackson, a former All-American at North Carolina, said on the “Field of 68” podcast. “Once you take out the experience piece, now it’s just purely based on talent. The talent’s always going to be better at the Power 5, bigger schools.”

The Cinderella-less Sweet 16 begins Thursday night when Texas plays No. 2 seed Purdue.