No. 9 Utah State v. No. 1 Arizona

Sunday, March 22
4:50 pm PT, truTv
San Diego, CA

Rebounding and free-throw shooting.

Those are the keys for Arizona to advance to the Sweet 16.

The Wildcats have multiple players who can be difference-makers. Tommy Lloyd’s team is not reliant on any single guy and can overcome poor performances by key contributors.

If Brayden Burries doesn’t have it, Anthony Dell’Orso steps up. If Koa Peat can’t get it going, Tobe Awaka picks up the slack.

And so on and so on.

There are just too many weapons for Utah State to slow down. Too many variables to account for.

The only way that Arizona loses is if it beats itself. And how does it do that?

Missing free throws and giving up offensive rebounds.

At times, the Wildcats have been slacking on the defensive glass and gone cold from the line. There aren’t many flaws to the team, but those two categories are noteworthy issues.

So, how do the Aggies match up? Well, frankly, not very well.

Jerrod Calhoun’s team is 222nd nationally in rebounds per game. That would put USU 11th in the Big 12.

In other words, in the bottom half of the league, around the other teams that missed the Tournament.

Utah State’s offensive rebounding is marginally better, slotting in at No. 179 nationally. But that would also put them at just 11th in the Big 12.

As a comparison, Arizona is No. 2 nationally in rebounds per game and No. 33 overall in offensive rebounds per game.

That’s not a good analytical matchup for the Aggies and is arguably the reason why the spread is so wide.

This isn’t Villanova.

The quality in competition USU is about to face is exponentially better than what Nova trotted out onto the floor. You aren’t lining up against Duke Brennan and Devin Askew.

This is an Arizona team that won the toughest conference in the nation by multiple games and won the Big 12 Tournament by beating two Final Four contenders.

The Cats are coming off their largest margin of victory in the NCAA Tournament since 1998, and they didn’t even play that great.

Mix in a strong contingent of Arizona fans at Viejas Arena, and you have the recipe for a convincing win.

But the three-point shot is the ultimate equalizer. And allowing second-chance opportunities, while missing free throws, is the path to an upset.

If Utah State hits its threes while getting second-chance points, the chance of an upset rises substantially.

At the same time, if Arizona controls the defensive glass and takes care of business at the free-throw line, it should leave with a win.