The ninth-seeded Utah State Aggies will face the eighth-seeded Villanova Wildcats in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament on Friday. Utah State is coming off a 73-62 win over San Diego State in the Mountain West Conference Tournament championship game. Villanova, meanwhile, dropped a 78-64 decision to Georgetown in the quarterfinals of the Big East Conference Tournament on. The Aggies (28-6), who have won four in a row, won the Mountain West regular-season title at 15-5. The Wildcats (24-8), who have won two of their last three games, finished 15-5 and in third place in the Big East standings.

Tipoff from Viejas Arena in San Diego is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Utah State is a 1.5-point favorite in the latest Utah State vs. Villanova odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 147.5. Before making any Villanova vs. Utah State picks, check out the Utah State vs. Villanova predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 NCAA Tournament on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks.

Now, the model has simulated Utah State vs. Villanova 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted men’s college basketball picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several men’s college basketball odds and men’s college basketball betting lines for Villanova vs. Utah State:

Top Utah State vs. Villanova predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Utah State vs. Villanova, SportsLine’s model is going Over on the total (147.5 points). The Over has hit in six of the last 10 Utah State games, while the Over has hit in seven of the last 10 Villanova games. Utah State is 5-5 against the spread in its last 10 games. Villanova, meanwhile, is 4-6 against the spread in its last 10.

The model projects the Aggies to have two players score 16.3 points or more, including Mason Falslev, who is projected to score 16.4 points. The Wildcats are projected to have five players score 13 points or more, led by Tyler Perkins, who is projected to score 16.7 points. The model is projecting 154 combined points, as the Over clears in nearly 70% of simulations. See the full Villanova vs, Utah State picks at SportsLine.

How to make Villanova vs. Utah State picks

Now, the model simulated every possession of Utah State vs. Villanova 10,000 times and says one side of the spread hits 60% of the time. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Villanova vs. Utah State, and which side of the spread hits in 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Utah State vs. Villanova spread to back, all from the advanced model that just simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.