NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket picks, Cinderella teams, top upsets: Model simulates March Madness 10,000 times



NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket picks, Cinderella teams, top upsets: Model simulates March Madness 10,000 times

No. 1 overall seed Duke enters the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket on an 11-game winning streak, taking home the ACC regular season and tournament titles along the way. The Blue Devils join Michigan, Arizona and Florida as the No. 1 seeds in the 2026 March Madness bracket, making them among the most popular 2026 NCAA Tournament picks to win it all. However, No. 2 seeds UConn, Houston, Iowa State and Purdue have all proven themselves throughout the season. The Boilermakers are coming off an upset win over Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament championship game, but how far should you have them advancing in your 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket pools?

Finding at least one 2026 March Madness Cinderella team is a crucial piece of building a winning 2026 March Madness bracket strategy. Which March Madness upset picks should you target before the Big Dance begins? Before making any 2026 March Madness bracket predictions, be sure to check out the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Their proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91 percent of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past seven tournaments. It was all over UConn’s championship run two years ago and nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 last year. It also correctly predicted all four Final Four teams in 2025.

It knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016.

Now, with the 2026 NCAA bracket being revealed, the model is simulating the matchups and its results are in. You can only see it over at SportsLine.

2026 March Madness bracket games to watch

One of the 2026 March Madness matchups to keep an eye on: No. 8 seed Villanova vs. No. 9 seed Utah State in the West Region. Villanova has been one of the top teams in college basketball in recent years, winning the NCAA Tournament in 2016 and 2018 before making another trip to the Final Four in 2022. The Wildcats join Ohio State as the only programs that have played in the NCAA Tournament in every decade since the 1930s. Utah State is back in the Big Dance for the fourth year in a row as it tries to make a run to the Final Four for the first time since 1970.

Also in the West Region, Miami vs. Missouri figures to be a pivotal 7 vs. 10 matchup. Missouri hovered on the bubble for most of the season but used a strong stretch in SEC play to secure its spot in the NCAA Tournament field. The Tigers are on a three-game losing streak heading into their matchup against Miami, which is coming off an 84-62 loss to Virginia in the ACC Tournament. The Hurricanes lost four of their five games against ranked opponents during the regular season, with three of those losses coming by double digits.

The third matchup to watch in the West Region features No. 4 seed Arkansas vs. No. 13 seed Hawaii. Arkansas enters the NCAA Tournament with a ton of momentum after winning the SEC Tournament on Sunday. The Razorbacks won three games in five days, capping off their run with an 86-75 win over Vanderbilt. Hawaii beat UC Irvine in the Big West Tournament title game on Saturday after finishing second in the Big West regular-season standings. You can see how far all these teams go over at SportsLine.

How to make 2026 NCAA bracket predictions

How far will those major programs go? And which Cinderella teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model’s track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you’ll want to see which stunners it is calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.

So what’s the optimal NCAA Tournament bracket 2026? And which 2026 March Madness underdogs will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which teams you can back with confidence, all from the model that’s nailed 25 upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception and beat over 91% of players in four of the last seven tournaments.