Trump is in a ‘vulnerable position’ in Iran, former White House aide warns
A former senior aide to Donald Trump has told Metro that the President is in a ‘vulnerable position’ with his war in Iran – and doesn’t know how to get out of it.
Since the US launched joint strikes in Iran with Israel more than two weeks ago, the oil industry has been thrown into chaos, neighbouring countries have been struck with missiles, and 13 US soldiers have been killed.
At the time, Trump said his reasons for the strikes on February 28 were he believed Iran was going to attack the US first – something that his own officials have since told Congress that there was no intelligence suggesting this.
Trump also said he hoped to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, something Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has also said, adding: ‘We didn’t start this war… but under President Trump, we’re finishing it.’
When the conflict began, only 41% of Americans approved of the intervention – far lower than support for any other US conflict in decades.
Now, John Robert Bolton, Trump’s former national security advisor from 2018 to 2019, told Metro that there is a strong case for regime change in Iran, but Trump hasn’t made this clear to the American public – something which could come back to haunt him.
He said: ‘You’ve always got to be prudent, but when a country is seeking weapons of mass destruction—chemical, biological, or nuclear—and engaging in international terrorism while repressing its own people, it is a problem,’ he warned.
‘If you wait too long to deal with it, as we did with North Korea, it becomes a bigger problem. It goes to what Churchill said regarding appeasement: “This just confirms the unteachability of mankind.”
‘You go through this over and over again; you don’t strike when it’s easy, you wait until it’s too late, and then you pay the price.’
Trump’s biggest mistake in Iran
Having served under Trump for two years in his first administration, former US ambassador to the United Nations Bolton said the President needed to convince America why going after Iran would be to their benefit – but so far, he hasn’t.
‘Trump didn’t make it clear to the public, to Congress, or to the Allies. It’s not too late, but it’s getting close,’ he said.
‘By failing to make the case, he has put himself in a vulnerable position. He knows he’s in a difficult place, and he doesn’t know how to get out of it,’ Bolton added.
This is a ‘war of choice’
Ambassador Bolton told Metro that while Iran was not considered an ‘imminent threat’, its nuclear programme was getting ‘too close for comfort’.
‘People say this is a “war of choice.” It is. It’s a preventive war to prevent the need to do something else in much more dangerous circumstances,’ he explained.
Referring to the US’ Iraq War in 2003, he added: ‘By the late 1990s, Saddam didn’t have centrifuges spinning, but he had kept together approximately 3,000 scientists and technicians who could rebuild the program.
‘That was the point: they have the knowledge. Iran may not have centrifuges spinning today, but they know how to put them back together.’
When a country is ‘seeking weapons of mass destruction and engaging in international terrorism while suppressing its own people’, it’s a problem, he added.
‘The lesson to us is: don’t be so patient. If a proliferator has enough patience and gets nuclear weapons, it becomes difficult, if not impossible, to take its program out without grave risk,’ Bolton said.
‘If the US had attacked Iran 20 years ago, it would have spared the region ‘a lot of pain and suffering’.
Trump needs to work with the opposition in Iran
The opposition movement in Iran is extremely widespread, but not organised, Ambassador Bolton points out.
Still, working with dissidents inside the country could prove vital for Trump’s goals of regime change in the country.
‘Dissatisfaction with the regime has never been higher. It is weaker than at any point since it took power in 1979,’ Ambassador Bolton argued.
‘People age 30 and under—who make up two-thirds of the population—know they could have a different life. They can see it across the Gulf; they can see it on the internet when the government lets the internet operate.’
After the 2022 murder of Mahsa Amini, a Kurdish woman in Iran who was beaten and killed by police because she refused to wear the hijab, anti-government protests surged.
The murder of Amini prompted the ‘Women, Life, Freedom’ movement, which Bolton said is significant, because: ‘Once you challenge the Ayatollahs’ legitimacy, in effect, you are challenging the state.’
Knock-on effects cripple the Middle East
Gulf states are still suffering from missile and drone attacks after Tehran threatened to widen its campaign as the war in the Middle East entered its third week.
Iranian strikes have killed at least a dozen civilians in Gulf states, most of them migrant workers.
Yesterday, President Trump said he hoped allies would send warships to secure the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran has fired hundreds of missiles and drones at Arab Gulf neighbours during the war, but it has said it was targeting US assets, even as hits or attempts were reported on civilian ones such as airports and oil fields.
As global anxiety soars over oil prices and supplies, Trump said on Saturday that he hopes China, France, Japan, the UK, South Korea and others send warships to keep the Strait of Hormuz ‘open and safe’.
But Iran’s joint military command has reiterated its threat to attack US-linked ‘oil, economic and energy infrastructures’ in the region if the Islamic Republic’s oil infrastructure is hit.
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