On Tuesday evening, Republicans breathed a half-sigh of relief after Sen. John Cornyn placed first in his primary against disgraced Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Republican primary in Texas.

But neither candidate winning a majority means that the two will lock horns for the next 12 weeks. Republicans hope Cornyn having done better than projected — polls had him second in the three-way race — means Trump will endorse the incumbent, whom many conservatives despise.

They have good reason to believe this, given that Paxton has been impeached, has a messy divorce underway and has a history of extreme policies that would turn off swing voters. The fact that more Democrats than Republicans voted in the Texas primary between Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico, which ended with Talarico winning outright, should petrify the GOP.

Democrats, meanwhile, seem excited at the idea of Talarico posing a real threat. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who in his 2020 presidential campaign nearly won Texas thanks to support in the majority-Hispanic Rio Grande Valley — where Talarico overperformed — said he’d campaign for Talarico if asked.

“I think he stands an excellent chance to become next senator from Texas. I have always believed that Texas has the potential to be a progressive state,” he told The Independent. Sen. Raphael Warnock of Georgia, a preacher at Ebenezer Baptist Church who flipped a seat everyone thought would stay red in 2021, said he looked forward to Talarico, a Presbyterian seminarian, winning.

“I like Talarico. I think he is going to run an incredible race in Texas, and hopefully we’ll have yet another pastor in the United States Senate,” Warnock told The Independent.

The Republican calculus is simple: the base of the GOP follows what Trump does and even if they don’t like Cornyn, Texas Republicans will see that Paxton puts a seat at risks in the Lone Star State. Trump has said he’ll make an endorsement in the race soon if one or the other does not drop out.

And betting markets seem confident that Trump could get Cornyn over the line.

On Wednesday, The Atlantic reported Trump would likely endorse the four-term incumbent. As soon as the story broke, Kalshi shifted its projection from Paxton having a 71.1 percent chance of winning the race to Cornyn having a solid 80.3 percent chance of winning.

That might be why some strident conservatives who love Paxton are trying to talk Trump off the ledge.

“Trump endorsement may be Cornyn’s only chance, but Trump should know that many in his TX base will be deeply alienated, and may not comply,” talk show host Mark Davis tweeted.

Conservative activist Ned Ryun echoed those sentiments.

“Trump has a chance to take out one of the WORST red state senators who’s been screwing Trump for years. Cornyn is an abysmal waste and guess what? Paxton can win the general,” he said.

But the markets think it’s set in stone. Poylmarket puts a Cornyn endorsement at 86 percent, with “yes” shares currently at 89 cents while “no” shares are at 16 cents.

Trump’s primary record speaks for itself, even after he left office. In 2022, former television host and physician Mehmet Oz, also known as “Dr. Oz,” locked horns with Dave McCormick, a former hedge fund manager, for Pennsylvania’s open Senate seat. Oz would then win in a nail-biter primary.

That same year, former Trump critic and Hillbilly Elegy author JD Vance ran for former Sen. Rob Portman’s open seat in Ohio. Vance, who had made a radical conversion to a MAGA warrior, struggled to break through in a crowded primary. But Trump’s endorsement catapulted him to the front of the pack, minting Vance as a senator and eventually, Trump’s vice president. Trump’s endorsement also cleared the field for former University of Georgia legend Herschel Walker to run against Warnock and former Arizona news anchor Kari Lake to become the Republican nominee for governor that year.

But Trump’s record is not without blemishes. In 2022, he endorsed former Sen. David Perdue to run against Brian Kemp, the Republican incumbent governor of Georgia who certified 2020 Joe Biden’s victory in the state. Kemp ran through the tape while Perdue slept at the wheel.

For a brief moment before he left office, he wanted then-Governor Kristi Noem to challenge John Thune for the Republican nomination for Senate in South Dakota. Noem decided against it, Thune would become majority leader and Noem would become Homeland Security secretary until he sacked her this week.

And even this week, he did not have a perfect record in Texas. He endorsed sitting Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller who would lose to Nate Sheets, Gov. Greg Abbott’s preferred pick.

He had endorsed Rep. Tony Gonzales in Texas’s 23rd congressional district. But this came before The San Antonio Express-News reported about his engaging in an affair with a married staffer who would later kill herself. Gonzales would win more votes than YouTuber Brendan Herrera, but not a majority, triggering a runoff.

But Gonzales would admit to an affair and the House Ethics Committee would open an investigation into him. House Speaker Mike Johnson would call on Gonzales to end his re-election bid, which he did on Thursday, opening a chance for Herrera and by virtue of that, a Democrat to credibly challenge Herrera.

Trump also likes to pad his batting average, endorsing Republicans in safe seats. He also tries to avoid making difficult endorsements. In 2022, he endorsed “ERIC” in Missouri’s open Senate race since two of the top candidates–then-Attorney General Eric Schmitt and disgraced former Governor Eric Greitens–shared a first name. Schmitt would win that race and has become an even more hardline warrior for MAGA than his colleague Sen. Josh Hawley.

And a Trump endorsement doesn’t always equal a victory in November. Oz, Lake and Walker would all lose their races in 2022. Lake would lose another race to now-Sen. Ruben Gallego in Arizona.

But if Trump endorses Cornyn, it might work out fine for Republicans. It would also benefit Republicans because it means they would likely not need to spend $100 million to save Cornyn and instead throw money to races in Alaska, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina and Maine.

“Obviously, I’m very supportive of John Cornyn, and I think it would help settle that race and get us ready for November,” Sen. James Lankford of Oklahoma and a Texas Longhorn, told The Independent. “If Paxton wins every poll out there says that Texas is risk. If Cornyn wins, Texas is not at risk. So let’s settle it now.”