MW Tournament Likely Boise State’s Best Path to Big Dance
By Stephen Vilardo, SuperWest Sports
The Broncos sent their senior class out in style in their final regular-season game at ExtraMile Arena.
Fueled by a career-high 33 points from Drew Fielder, the nine-point win kept Boise State’s slim at-large hopes alive.
It also dealt a severe blow to San Diego State’s Tournament resume, in an inconsistent stretch for them, but that’s a column for another day.
What does the current winning streak mean for Boise State’s NCAA Tournament chances? Here are my thoughts on the path ahead.
The good news is that the final regular-season home win marks the Broncos’ fourth consecutive victory, their 10th in the last 13 games.
Since struggling to a 1-5 start to conference play in January, Leon Rice has his squad playing at a high level.
Will it be enough?
At 19-11, Boise State is putting together a strong campaign once again, but it may be too little too late for their at-large NCAA hopes.
Simply put, the Broncos still have more work to do, but not enough time in which to do it.
The regular-season finale takes them to Colorado State, obviously not a game the Broncos can afford to drop, and then a run in Vegas would be needed.
And if they are to make that run, they’d probably have to cross the finish line first to punch their ticket.
That stretch of five losses in six games to ring in the New Year put BSU in too deep a hole.
The selection committee is supposed to (and claims to) look at the totality of a season. If they do, the Broncos might just have a case.
The non-conference slate offered up a neutral site win over St. Mary’s, a victory that keeps looking better and better by the day as the Gaels are stacking the wins.
Two of the three non-conference losses came at the hands of Power Conference programs at the Maui Invitational, against USC and NC State.
The latter was a Quad 1 contest, and the Wolfpack are finishing strong.
The glaring problem with the non-conference slate is the opening loss to Hawai’i Pacific, which is difficult to overlook.
In Mountain West play, as bad as the opening stretch was, two of the three losses since then may be the most damaging.
During that 10-3 two-month period, the Broncos dropped a pair of games—to UNLV at home and Grand Canyon on the road—securing season sweeps for those opponents.
Boise State could not afford the home losses in particular, and, in any case, the Broncos should not have gone 0-4 against those two teams.
The Broncos have been playing much better over the last couple of months, a testament to Leon Rice’s ability to keep his players pushing throughout the season.
The current hot streak gives Boise State hope of making a deep run in Vegas next week. But that prospect raises another pesky issue for the Broncos this season—Utah State.
The road to the conference tournament crown would likely go through the Aggies at some point, and the later, the better.
If the MW Tournament started today, Boise would be the 6-seed, meaning a meeting with USU would only come in the title game. But that could change.
Boise State has not been competitive in its two games against the Aggies, losing by an average of 22 points per contest.
Their nine other defeats came by an average of 8.2.
While the Broncos hope to be playing well into March on neutral courts, that senior night win may not be the final game at ExtraMile for this group.
writes about various topics for SuperWest sports, including stats and records, college sports, and motorsports. He also founded and runs the Sports and Entertainment Research Center (SERC).