Match Details

Fixture: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Denis Shapovalov

Date: March 4, 2026

Tournament: BNP Paribas Open

Round: First Round (Round of 96)

Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California, United States

Category: ATP Masters 1000

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $9,415,725

Live Telecast: USA – Tennis Channel | UK – Sky Sports | Canada – TSN

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Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Denis Shapovalov preview

Former top 10 players Stefanos Tsitsipas and Denis Shapovalov will collide in the first round of the BNP Paribas Open 2026.

Even though Tsitsipas remained undefeated at the United Cup with three wins, his team still bowed out in the quarterfinals. He tasted his first loss of the season at the Adelaide International with a first-round exit. He wrapped up his time Down Under with a second-round loss at the Australian Open.

A second-round exit from the ABN AMRO Open was followed by a quarterfinal finish at the Qatar Open. Tsitsipas then headed to Dubai to defend his title. He was knocked out by Ugo Humbert in the first round itself, making it his earliest exit from the tournament.

Shapovalov had a disappointing start to the season, crashing out in the first round of the Brisbane International. While he managed to win a match at the Australian Open, he was sent home by Marin Cilic in the second round. His next tournament was the Dallas Open, where he was the defending champion.

Shapovalov beat Rafael Jodar, Aleksandar Kovacevic, and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina before losing to Ben Shelton in the semifinals. He couldn’t sustain this momentum and lost to Pablo Carreno Busta in the first round of the Dubai Open.

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Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Denis Shapovalov head-to-head

Shapovalov leads their rivalry 4-2. He won their previous meeting at the Miami Open 2024 in straight sets.

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Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Denis Shapovalov odds

(Odds via BetMGM)

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Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Denis Shapovalov prediction

Tsitsipas has a 9-5 record this year, while Shapovalov has a 4-4 record. Both have lost their last two matches, and for one of them, the streak will continue at Indian Wells. Even though their first-round exit from Dubai was disappointing, it worked out in their favor as they got to escape before the start of the conflict in the Middle East.

Neither has performed that well at the BNP Paribas Open in the past. Tsitsipas has a 9-7 record with a quarterfinal in 2021 being his best result, while Shapovalov has a 7-7 record and has never made it past the fourth round.

The two are familiar rivals. Only one of their six matches has gone to a deciding set. Both of Tsitsipas’ wins in this rivalry came on clay, while all four of Shapovalov’s wins were on hardcourts.

The conditions at Indian Wells tend to be on the slower side, which could tip the scales in Tsitsipas’ favor. He has also outperformed Shapovalov this year, further making him the favorite to win this match.

Pick: Stefanos Tsitsipas to win in straight sets.

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Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Denis Shapovalov betting tips

Tip 1: The match will have at least 20 games.

Tip 2: Tsitsipas to win at least one set with a score of 6-3.