The 2026 IndyCar season opener in St. Petersburg, Florida, is only a few hours away, and the 25-car grid for the race is ready to fight for the first winner’s trophy of the year. Qualifying on the 14-turn, 1.8-mile street circuit on Saturday threw a curveball at the drivers.

Most of the usual Fast 6 suspects of 2025 were not in the picture for pole position for the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. All three Andretti Global drivers should ideally have been in contention for the Fast 6, considering the advantage they have on street circuits. Unfortunately, braking and tire locking issues for Will Power derailed his qualifying attempt, while Kyle Kirkwood didn’t show enough promise.

Marcus Ericsson, who had an absolute disaster of a 2025 IndyCar season, suddenly found form to secure P2 behind pole-sitter Scott McLaughlin. David Malukas hit the ground running with Team Penske, securing P5. Reigning IndyCar champion Alex Palou secured P4, despite Chip Ganassi Racing not looking too quick in St. Pete.

The Dale Coyne Racing duo came out of nowhere, with Dennis Hauger securing P3 and Romain Grosjean in P6. And that’s the storyline we’ll begin our predictions with.

#4 – Dennis Hauger finishes in the Top 5

Dale Coyne Racing showed superior qualifying pace, but the race will be a different animal. Though the team should have a newfound edge on street circuits due to its technical alliance with Andretti Global, Hauger and Grosjean will need luck to finish in the same or higher position than where they start.

Hauger has been part of the Andretti organization for more than a year, including full domination in Indy NXT last year. Our metaphorical money is on him to give DCR its first Top 5 of 2026.

#3 – Josef Newgarden scripts a comeback from P25 into the Top 10

Josef Newgarden has had an underwhelming weekend so far in St. Pete and qualified in P25 on Saturday. Though it seems like an extension of his 2025 troubles, the two-time IndyCar champion is no stranger to comebacks.

His teammates, McLaughlin and Malukas, have shown that Penske has the pace to fight for a win. In 2025, Newgarden went from P10 to P3 on the street circuit, and if a caution period plays into his hands, the two-time Indy 500 winner should easily finish in the Top 10.

#2 – Scott McLaughlin loses pole advantage early in the race

Pole-sitter Scott McLaughlin fell prey to an untimely caution last year. He started the race on the primary tires, and a crash in the midfield on lap 1 offset his pole advantage. The drivers behind him on the alternate tires, which have shorter lives, pitted early and ditched the tires for the more durable primaries. McLaughlin didn’t have that freedom, having started on fresh primaries.

A repeat of early caution in the 2026 race seems likely, considering the tricky nature of Turns 1, 2, and 3. Many drivers had trouble getting the soft, alternate tires up to speed during qualifying. This means teams would be looking to strategically fulfill IndyCar’s mandated use of two alternate tire sets in the race, with drivers in the midfield wanting to get done with one set as early as possible.

McLaughlin, who would want to control the pace of the race from pole, would likely start on the primaries again, leaving him open to a potential disadvantage due to the danger of an early caution.

#1 – Marcus Ericsson wins the first IndyCar race of 2026; perfect Palou secures podium

Marcus Ericsson is eyeing a fairytale start to his 2026 IndyCar season. Last year, the Andretti Global driver had his worst season in the series and finished 20th in the championship standings. He has also entered contract year with Andretti this year.

In February, the 2022 Indy 500 winner emphasized that he knows only results speak in this sport, and he needs to prove his worth to earn a contract renewal. So far in St. Pete, he hasn’t put one foot wrong. Ericsson wasn’t on anyone’s radar for a front row start, but is now one of the favorites to win, and win, he should.

Reigning IndyCar champion Alex Palou cannot be ruled out of victory contention after his impressive qualifying performance. He was the only CGR driver to enter Fast 6 and should begin the season with a podium after battling with Ericsson and the Penske duo of McLaughlin and Malukas up front.