Libman: PSPP paints himself into a corner on sovereignty
Since the Parti Québécois was founded in 1968 by René Lévesque, it has contested 15 general elections. Committed to separating Quebec from Canada to become an independent country, the PQ won five times, with consecutive majorities twice (spanning 1976-1985 and 1994-2003) and forming one minority government in 2012, lasting under two years.
In the first terms of those majority reigns, the PQ held referendums on sovereignty, losing both times.
Several times during these 57-plus years, often with an election looming and the whiff of potential power in the air, party leaders downplayed the party’s raison d’être to allay concerns of many voters regarding separation — and instead promised good government.
Current leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon faces a dilemma similar to that of his predecessors. Polls have shown for two years that his party is leading, so he’s been inhaling that aromatic whiff for some time now. But at the same time, geopolitical circumstances associated with our southern neighbour have rendered the PQ’s sovereignty option — with all its social and economic risks — as unpopular as it’s ever been.
PSPP, however, can’t back down. When his party was decimated after the last election, he boldly went to work rebuilding the base, getting sovereignists to come home by emphatically
committing to a referendum in his first term
if elected.
Perhaps he didn’t expect his poll numbers would turn that quickly, but voters soured on the Coalition Avenir Québec government, and the Liberals were leaderless. With the Conservatives also in the mix, the PQ benefits from a three-way split among non-sovereignist voters. The election is fast approaching, so many are waiting for any sign of retreat from PSPP on his referendum pledge.
This week, on the night of his party’s
byelection victory in Chicoutimi
, the PQ’s fourth since the last general election, PSPP sought to reassure voters. He admitted that during the campaign he discovered many people in the region feared a referendum — spooked by U.S. President Donald Trump’s economic threats.
He told reporters a PQ government might therefore wait for the scheduled
end of Trump’s term in office
in 2029 before sparking a referendum.
as PSPP backpedalling, which he refuted.
At this point, after having affirmed and reaffirmed for years his commitment to hold a referendum in his first term, PSPP knows that backtracking would shatter his credibility and could compromise the PQ’s electoral chances more so than current voter concerns about another referendum.
So instead of walking it back, PSPP is trying to reassure Quebecers that a referendum won’t happen right away, but later within his four-year term. Don’t worry. Elect us into power now, and we’ll vote on breaking up later, as circumstances change.
The hypocrisy is glaring. So is the incoherence in PSPP’s attempt to paint himself out of a corner.
By acknowledging that periods of geopolitical instability may not be the best time for a referendum on separation, is he not admitting that being part of the larger federation is a better safeguard for Quebec? This contradicts much of his thesis that Quebec must get out of Canada to best position and protect itself.
Furthermore, if he wins the election and pushes the referendum three or four years later, how will he govern in the meantime within the Canadian federation that he portrays as a crushing straitjacket for Quebec? His political platform is based entirely on the utopic paradigm of Quebec being free of Canada’s shackles.
The prospect of a sovereignty referendum in the current geopolitical context might cost him the election. A later referendum means he would first have to govern. If things go well, he contradicts his claim of how Canada stifles Quebec’s development. If things go poorly, his ability to provide Quebecers with good government will be brought into question. Will he then just pick fights with Ottawa on everything?
Quebecers who want stable governance had better start seeing what lies ahead if PSPP becomes premier.
Robert Libman is an architect and planning consultant who has served as Equality Party leader and MNA, mayor of Côte-St-Luc and a member of the Montreal executive committee.