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“What’s certain is that a totalitarian enclave like Cuba’s can’t continue to exist, so change will definitely come there, eventually.” — Vaclav Havel

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Are we witnessing the inevitable sunset of the communist experiment in Cuba?

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After 67 years, it appears the regime has run its course. Its economy is a basket case, a celebration of scarcity.

Oh, the regime still has its well-fed fanboys in the faculty lounge, along with the usual third-year political science students. It no longer resonates elsewhere. Most particularly in Cuba itself.

Drunk at the Last Chance Taberna

The country has survived these long decades of U.S. embargo via generous benefactors: First, the Soviet Union, North Korea and then the lifeline of Venezuelan oil. But the U.S. has turned off the tap on the oil and the Caribbean island is now sipping a Mojito at the Last Chance Taberna and Donald Trump has hinted the finale is near.

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On Wednesday, the Cuban coast guard intercepted a Florida- registered yacht in its waters; a shootout ensued, killing four Americans and leaving other wannabe counter-revolutionaries prisoners.

“Down here, it’s the headline news of the day,” my old friend Gregg Birnbaum told me from Miami. “The influence of Cuba here is inescapable. It’s everywhere.”

Birnbaum was the longtime political editor of the New York Post, with stints at the New York Daily News, NBC, CNN and the Miami Herald. He is now an adjunct journalism professor at the University of Florida and Florida International University.

America’s albatross

For what it’s worth, he’s also one of the sharpest observers of the U.S. political scene.

Strongman Fidel Castro captured Havana on January 1, 1959, toppling the mob-backed dictator Fulgencio Batista. Hundreds of thousands fled the island with the vast majority settling in Miami and South Florida. From there, they vowed, they would take back Cuba and what they believed was rightfully theirs.

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In 1961, backed by the CIA, the exiles invaded Cuba at the Bay of Pigs which turned into a bloody disaster.

“There was a story on a Bay of Pigs anniversary a few years ago,” Birnbaum recalled. “One of the survivors, who recently passed away, told The Miami Herald that ‘while we didn’t capture Havana, we got Miami!’”

The veteran political writer said the presence of the Cuban diaspora in Florida – who deplore anything smacking of communism – has played an outsized role in U.S. national politics. Everything from the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962 to the Mariel Boatlift in 1980 when Castro emptied his jails, has dominated headlines.

And now, Wednesday’s dust-up.

“I’m not really sure what this is all about,” Birnbaum said. “But a big question is why there weren’t eyes on this? A boat heading from the U.S. making a beeline to Cuba? Come on. Why didn’t the CIA have eyes on this?”

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Late Thursday, Cuba identified the remaining three men cut down on the Quixotic incursion and noted that one was in custody. The Miami Herald reported there were 10 people on the vessel and they are now accused of “terrorist infiltration.”

Vessel was stolen

According to Cuban officials, the boat in question had been reported stolen from a dock in the Florida Keys.  Angel Montera told cops his 24-foot Pro Line boat was stolen around 8:45 p.m. on Wednesday.

Cuba said that on board were assault rifles, sniper rifles, pistols, Molotov cocktails, night vision equipment, bulletproof vests, assault bayonets, camouflage clothing, ammunition of various calibres, combat rations, communication equipment and insignias from counterrevolutionary terrorist organizations.

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Two of those on board were wanted by the Cuban cops for acts of terrorism, officials said.

Still, Birnbaum believes the world is seeing the beginning of the end of the communist regime in Cuba. And the Trump administration will have no qualms giving it a shove into the dustbin of history.

What the country’s people want is very different from the starry-eyed, moth-eaten daydreams of academia, said Birnbaum, who has visited the island several times.

“There is a deep, deep yearning for freedom among the people. Freedom of expression, freedom of speech, freedom of the press, freedom of religion,” Birnbaum said. “This is very deeply embedded in the Cuban psyche and soul. They’ve been without it for 65 years.”

Anyone who has spent a few hours swilling ice-cold Bucaneros or Cristal beer on a sunny patio will tell you the same thing. Talk to the guys. Once you get past baseball, Luis Tiant, what a great fighter Teofilo Stevenson was (arguably the best ever) and the best spot to watch senoritas, the past, present and future are discussed.

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They are sick of communism’s dumb weight. How done? Raoul Castro’s grandson met with a high-ranking rep from U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio at a hotel near a meeting of Caribbean leaders on Wednesday in Saint Kitts.

Even those close to the regime know the party is over and are apparently willing to talk economic and political changes in Cuba. The Miami Herald said the Trump administration reportedly sees Raúl Guillermo Rodriguez Castro as a power player.

And, as Birnbaum noted, citing the old real estate maxim that it’s location, location, location. Cuba is in the neighbourhood. Iran is not.

“The timing is very interesting,” Birnbaum said. “Let’s face it, it’s easier to bring democracy to Cuba than it is to Iran.”

bhunter@postmedia.com

@HunterTOSun

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