Paid for by its rightwing, populist government and generated using AI, the billboards – showing Volodymyr Zelenskyy and EU officials with their hands outstretched – blanket Hungary. “Our message to Brussels: We won’t pay!” the taxpayer-funded advert reads, echoing the messaging woven through spots on radio, television and social media.

It’s a nod to the election strategy that Viktor Orbán, the EU’s longest-serving leader, has unleashed as he lags in most polls before upcoming elections: convincing voters that the country’s greatest threat is not fraying social services, the rising cost of living or economic stagnation, but rather the neighbouring country of Ukraine.

“Effectively, Ukraine is portrayed as a main enemy,” said Zsuzsanna Végh, an analyst at the German Marshall Fund. “This is not just about Ukraine per se, but it fits into the standard strategy of the governing party, of mobilising its electorate through generating fear in society.”

In 2018, when Orbán was seeking a third consecutive term as prime minister, he and his Fidesz party sought to stoke fears about migration. In 2022, as voters headed to the ballot box five weeks after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Orbán peddled the baseless claim that the opposition would send Hungarian troops to fight in the war.

This election, as Orbán faces an unprecedented challenge from a former top member of his own party, Péter Magyar, the strategy has seemingly been kicked into high gear. “We definitely see a significant escalation,” said Végh. “Besides the rhetoric, AI is extensively used to portray false messages and images to strengthen the government’s message.”

In recent days, the campaign has spilled out beyond the country’s borders as Orbán’s government refused to approve the latest EU sanctions package and a €90bn (£79bn) loan to Ukraine, citing disruptions to its supplies of Russian oil that pass through Ukraine.

The move prompted exasperation and anger among leaders across the EU. Poland’s foreign minister, Radosław Sikorski, described Hungary’s stance as “shocking” given that Budapest was itself invaded in the 20th century by Soviet troops. Sweden’s Europe minister, Jessica Rosencrantz, accused Orbán of using Ukraine as a “punching bag” in comments made to various media outlets.

With most independent polls suggesting that Magyar’s Tisza party has a wide lead over Orbán’s Fidesz, the government has stepped up its lambasting of Ukraine. This week Orbán claimed, without providing evidence, that the war-torn country was plotting to disrupt Hungary’s energy system and said he was dispatching troops to safeguard Hungary’s infrastructure.

The following day Orbán posted an open letter to Zelenskyy on social media, accusing the Ukrainian leader of “working to force” Hungary into the war with Russia while also “coordinating efforts” to catapult a pro-Ukraine government into power in Hungary.

For many in Hungary, Fidesz’s focus on Ukraine was laid bare after it released an AI-generated campaign video showing a little girl weeping at a window, intercut with scenes of her father being executed in war. Captions for the video read, in part: “This is only a nightmare now, but Brussels is preparing to make it a reality … Let’s not take risks. Fidesz is the safe choice!”

Magyar condemned the video, describing it as “sickening, unforgivable and deeply outrageous”, in a statement. “This is not politics, this is soulless manipulation.”

With about six weeks left until the vote, it remains to be seen whether voters will be swayed. On the streets of Budapest, László, 39, said he supported Orbán’s efforts to block EU support for Ukraine and would be voting for Fidesz. “The EU is basically in a Schrödinger’s cat dilemma,” the marketing specialist told the Guardian. “It says that Russia poses a threat to its existence and at the same time says it can be defeated with sanctions. But I fear that Europe is not taking steps towards peace, at the expense of the Ukrainian people’s blood.”

József, 93, said he planned on voting for the far-right Our Homeland party but that he agreed with Orbán’s stance on Ukraine. “What does all this have to do with us? Why should we care? This is not our business. The Russians have already said they want peace, but the EU and the UK just keep provoking them.”

Opposition supporters, however, expressed concerns about the consequences that Orbán’s electoral strategy could have for Hungary in the long term. “It completely isolates Hungary from other European countries, and we will end up under Russian oppression again,” said Mónika, 60.

Orbán’s focus on Ukraine had turned the election into a question of “two competing narratives”, said András Bíró-Nagy, the director of Policy Solutions, a Budapest-based political research institute.

On one side was Orbán and his emphasis on the existential threat of the war, the threat of rising oil prices and the risk that Hungary would be dragged into the conflict. Magyar, in contrast, had focused his campaign on stemming the rising costs of living, improving social services and reining in corruption.

The coming weeks would show which of these concerns motivate voters, said Bíró-Nagy. “Orbán has a vast media empire and also endless resources with which he can push through his messages to the Hungarian people,” he said. “So, for this reason, I would not underestimate Orbán’s power to shape the political agenda.”

This influence had already helped to shift Hungarian opinion, said Bíró-Nagy, citing research from his institute showing that in recent years, the majority of Hungarians had swung from approving the EU’s financial support for Ukraine to opposing it. “And Orbán managed to turn Volodymyr Zelenskyy into one of the most unpopular global politicians in Hungary,” he said.

The result was that, for many in Hungary, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had come to be seen as a war between two unpopular Slavic countries, creating space for Orbán to try to drum up votes by doubling down on anti-Ukraine rhetoric, he said.

“What Orbán has managed to do over the last four years is not to make Russia or [Vladimir] Putin popular in Hungary – they are unpopular,” he said. “But what he managed to do is to ruin the reputation of Ukraine and Zelenskyy in the eyes of Hungarian voters.”