Counting underway in Gorton and Denton amid high turnout for crucial byelection – UK politics live
Key events
The Green party candidate, Hannah Spencer, has arrived at the counting centre in Manchester.
More of the byelection’s 11 candidates have arrived at the Manchester Central venue as a result nears. Green candidate Hannah Spencer appears still to come. It’s 4.09am.
Labour candidate Angeliki Stogia has arrived at the count, escorted by Lucy Powell, the deputy leader of the party.
They stood, along with other glum-looking Labour activists, arms folded, in one corner of the room, expecting to be defeated, PA Media is reporting.
Masses of press stood at the other end of the room awaiting the arrival of the Green Party candidate, Hannah Spencer, and Reform UK’s Matt Goodwin.
The result of the election is expected in the next 30 minutes.
The byelection candidates have been arriving at the Manchester central convention complex and it’s been reported that they have been asked to meet with the returning officer in an announcement a short while ago, suggesting a result is near.
Reform activists are “hearing Matt Goodwin has all but conceded defeat to the Greens”, the UK poll aggregator Britain Elects has posted on X.
The Green party has predicted a “seismic moment” in UK politics, with a party source telling the Press Association:
Things are feeling positive. Not wanting to get ahead of ourselves, but everything that we thought that was going to be happening looks like it’s happening … Whatever happens, I think it’s fair to say that Greens are here to stay now as a progressive voice in British politics.
From day one of the byelection, we’ve said that Greens are the only party that could beat Reform. And I think tonight we’re seeing both of those things potentially coming true. I think it’s a seismic moment in British politics where Greens are showing that they’re a party that can protect the country from the threat of Reform, and that Labour’s not up to the job.”
What a Gorton byelection win would mean for Reform, Greens and Labour
The Gorton and Denton byelection is the biggest electoral test yet for Keir Starmer before what are expected to be disastrous results for Labour in the May local elections.
The vote is particularly symbolic because of the threat Labour faces from Reform UK and the Green party in a once safe seat. There are big implications for Starmer’s premiership, whatever the result, but also for the wider political landscape.
Deputy political editor Jessica Elgot has this rundown on what a win could mean for each party.
1. Reform UK win
A win for Reform UK’s candidate, Matt Goodwin, would be the biggest sign yet that Nigel Farage’s poll lead represents real voter intentions rather than being merely a symbol of dissatisfaction with the government. Goodwin rarely talks about Reform’s politics or local issues and has repeatedly made the fight a referendum on Starmer’s leadership.
A victory would suggest the party is sustaining momentum. It would also put paid to the argument advanced by Labour strategists that progressives will unite to defeat Reform when they know how to vote tactically.
2. Greens win
A Green victory might be the most catastrophic result for Starmer’s leadership and would show the Greens are a serious progressive force, not a protest vote.
It would also show that Labour is not the automatic beneficiary of an anti-Reform alliance and would make MPs standing in urban seats fearful of the Green threat, which is likely to be compounded by local election results in London.A
A win would suggest Hannah Spencer’s enthusiastic campaign means they could capitalise on an increase in disillusioned progressive voters.
3. Labour win
Labour activists have been unusually confident about their prospects of holding the seat since the start of the campaign.
Labour has managed to energise its activist base, despite polling showing a broad dissatisfaction with the government. Starmer allies who want the prime minister to take a more aggressively progressive position have been happy with how Starmer has drawn dividing lines with Reform.
A senior Labour source said it was an “electoral training ground for a new approach of making values-led arguments for a diverse and tolerant society”.
Hannah Al-Othman
While byelections tend to see lower turnouts than general elections, 47.62% voted on Thursday, only marginally less than the 47.8% who voted in 2024. The difference of just -0.2% makes it the closest byelection turnout to a general election turnout this century.
When Labour deputy leader Lucy Powell was elected to neighbouring Manchester Central in 2012, the turnout of 18.2% was the lowest since the second world war. But in Gorton and Denton the tightly fought race, and the presence of Reform, as well as strong on-the-ground operations from all three parties, saw this byelection buck the trend.
Powell appears to concede Labour defeat
Josh Halliday
Labour’s deputy leader, Lucy Powell, appears to have conceded defeat at the count in Manchester Central convention complex.
She said: “What’s clear is that the Greens have turned out their vote higher than they might otherwise have expected to do.
There is a big majority in this constituency that hasn’t voted for Reform and on the day the Greens have managed to win that argument that they were the best placed to do that. I’m not sure whether that would totally translate to a general election – we will have to see.
People want to see the Labour party, the Labour government, shouting more loudly about our values, about our story … and how we’re trying to change people’s lives for the better and they want to reject the policies of Reform, which they are going to resoundingly do in this byelection result this evening.
Asked about Keir Starmer’s future, Powell said: “Keir is resolute in his job as leader of the Labour party, as our prime minister and the task he has in hand. Keir has been dealing with some very big global headwinds in recent weeks and months … and it’s a tough job being prime minister. I know that Keir is the right person for that job and he does that job really well.
This is about politics as well – we’ve got to get our politics clearer so people know that we are on their side, we are standing up for them.
She added:
There is no leadership contest. We have a leader in Keir Starmer. What Keir himself has been saying very, very clearly … is that we do need to show our Labour values more strongly; we do need to unite that voter coalition once again to stand up for what I think this constituency will have shown, which is the vast majority of people in this country want to reject the politics of Reform, reject their division … and we’ve got to be the leaders of that and we will be.
Afzal Khan, the Labour MP for the neighbouring Rusholme constituency in Manchester, appeared confident as he arrived at the byelection count, according to the Press Association.
Khan said he was encouraged by the number of people he had seen going to the polls and his party’s “ground” operation to get out the vote.
He said:
People are coming out to vote. Despite the rain, fasting and everything. I think they’re coming out … Probably a record number. I’ve never seen so many in 25 years.
Earlier today, Labour said it had 1,000 activists out in the constituency.
An election observer group has raised concerns over people appearing to collude on voting in the Gorton and Denton byelection.
Democracy Volunteers, an organisation founded by Dr John Ault, and supported by the Conservative peer and psephologist Prof Robert Haywood, deployed four accredited election observers across the constituency.
The team attended 22 of the 45 polling stations while polls were open, spending between 30 and 45 minutes in each, working in pairs.
The organisation said its volunteers were looking at people appearing to collude on votes in breach of secret ballot rules, which it called “family voting”, as well as the impact of the requirement for voters to show ID before they were issued with a ballot paper.
Manchester city council said its staff had been trained to look for evidence of voter interference and that no concerns had been reported or raised with them while polls were open.
Democracy Volunteers said that while the enactment of the Ballot Secrecy Act in 2023 made “family voting” more clearly a breach of the secret ballot, signage to discourage the practice was only seen in 45% of the polling stations observed.
The observing team said they saw family voting in 15 of the 22 polling stations observed, reporting 32 cases in total, nine cases in one polling station alone. They observed a sample of 545 voters casting their votes, of which they said 12% either directed or were affected by family voting.
A spokesperson for the acting returning officer said:
Polling station staff are trained to look out for any evidence of undue influence on voters. No such issues have been reported today.
If Democracy Volunteers were so concerned about alleged issues they could and should have raised them with us during polling hours so that immediate action could be taken.
Labour sources have told the Press Association: “Early signs at the count indicate the Greens have been able to turn out support in a way they wouldn’t be able to replicate at a general election.”
Prof Will Jennings, of the University of Southampton, earlier said the contest was too close to call and that in Britain’s new fragmented politics “anything can happen”. He said a Labour defeat would be “terminal” for No 10’s strategy to try to appeal to right-leaning voters, which has alienated its core progressive supporters.
“It would be a symbol of the failure of that strategy and the end point for it,” Jennings said.
The worst-case scenario for Labour is coming third behind Reform and the Greens, not least because of the decision to stop Andy Burnham from standing.
Labour is defending a 13,413-vote majority in Gorton and Denton, where nearly 80% of voters backed a party on the left at the 2024 election.
Angeliki Stogia, a councillor, was selected as the Labour candidate after Andy Burnham was prevented from standing.
The academic turned GB News presenter Matt Goodwin – who has faced criticism for his comments on women, Muslims and British citizenship – is standing for Reform UK.
Hannah Spencer, a Trafford councillor and plumber by trade, is the Green party candidate.
Welcome
Welcome to our continuing coverage of the crucial Gorton and Denton byelection.
Counting is now under way in what is set to be a three-way contest for the seat in south-east Manchester after one of the most unpredictable byelections in years.
The Green party leader, Zack Polanski, said before voting that his party was “neck and neck” with Reform UK to overturn Labour’s 13,000-vote majority, and that Labour would need to “search their conscience” if Reform UK won.
Keir Starmer’s party had targeted left-leaning voters in the Greater Manchester seat with claims that only Labour can see off Nigel Farage’s Reform, saying that a vote for the Greens was “in effect, a vote for Reform”.
A Labour defeat in the party’s long-time stronghold would be a major blow to Keir Starmer’s leadership.
The byelection was triggered by the resignation of Andrew Gwynne on health grounds in January. The former MP was under investigation by parliament for offensive messages he sent in a WhatsApp group of local Labour figures.
Stay with us as we bring you the latest.