The chess world is already excited for the FIDE Candidates 2026, which will decide who challenges world champion Gukesh Dommaraju later this year. And according to American grandmaster Hans Niemann, there is one clear favourite.

Niemann has openly said that his compatriot Fabiano Caruana is the hands-down favourite to win the
2026 Candidates. In his opinion, Caruana is the most consistent player in the field and clearly stronger than the rest of the qualified players.

“I think the favourite should definitely be Fabiano Caruana. He’s the best player, at least in terms of consistency, and I think he’s clearly the best. After that, I don’t really see another clear favourite,” Niemann told Sagar Shah of ChessBase India.

“Obviously, Matthias Blübaum and Andrey Esipenko, you highly doubt they would win. So, among these five (R Praggnanandhaa, Anish Giri, Hikaru Nakamura, Javokhir Sindarov, Ding Liren), I don’t see a big difference in how they can perform in just 14 games. So yes, Fabi is the favourite,” he added.

Talking about the other main contenders, Niemann said he would go with Sindarov as his second favourite and India’s
Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa as his third choice to win the Candidates later this year.

“If I had to pick someone else, I’d probably say Sindarov because of his strong recent results. Other than that, Hikaru has been inactive in classical chess, so I wouldn’t consider him. If I had to pick a third, it would probably be Pragg,” he said.

Niemann backs Caruana to beat Gukesh

Niemann did not stop there. He also spoke about a possible World Championship match. If Caruana wins the Candidates and faces Gukesh, Niemann believes the American would be a strong favourite over the Indian teenager.

“I would say probably 75-25 to Fabi,” he said, giving Caruana a 70 to 75 percent chance of beating Gukesh and becoming world champion.

The upcoming FIDE Candidates tournament will feature eight players. Caruana will be one of the most experienced players in the field. Nakamura also brings a lot of experience and has been ranked in the world’s top three for many years. Giri is another experienced campaigner at the highest level.

India’s only representative will be Praggnanandhaa, who also played in the previous Candidates in Toronto. Meanwhile, Sindarov, Esipenko and Blübaum will be playing in a Candidates tournament for the first time.

The FIDE Candidates 2026 and FIDE Women’s Candidates Tournament 2026 will take place from March 28 to April 16 at the Cap St George’s Hotel & Resort, Cyprus.